MEGATHREAD & NEWS WRAP-UP \\ Nov/16/2020: \\ War in Artsakh (Karabakh) \\ Pashinyan's Q&A in Parliament; reveals details; negotiations \\ Azerb. always demanded Shushi through re-population \\ battle for Shushi & rumors; interview with soldier \\ political turmoil & resignations \\ refugees return
Your 21-minute important Monday report in 5100 words.
Shushi battles / eye-witness account by a soldier
Q: did you participate in Shushi battles? A: Yes. For 4 days. It began on the night of November 3rd. We were attacked by an infantry followed by artillery strikes. They were hitting our artillery and infantry. When we moved down to the village [Qarin Tak?] they began using airforce, drones, artillery, cluster bombs, etc. We fired at each other for two days nonstop. They had around 800 losses. We were told to leave from there, followed by four Azeri jets bombing the area where we were. They began firing from another location. Then it stopped. Around November 12th Shushi was ours but Karabakh already wasn't. Q: where there Azeris in Shushi? A: Yes. We held one part of the city, while Azeris held another. We left on November 14th. Q: How did you leave? A: Russian peacekeepers came and we left without shooting. Q: how many wounded did you have? A: none. There were 12 of us. Q: how old are you? A: 19. I'm a conscript. Q: how far away were Azeris? A: around 100 meters. [He is part of the group that infiltrated Shushi during the second battle. They held a small part of Shushi until the end, but the administration decided it wouldn't be possible to fully liberate Shushi.] https://t.me/sashakots/18228
political turmoil continues // coup guys, howlers, walls, and soldiers
Yesterday a group of acting/former security service officials and opposition figures were arrested under the suspicion of organizing an assassination against PM Pashinyan. An audio call was leaked. Some of them were kept in jail by a judge, while others were released before the trial. Hours later Pashinyan wrote: "Today I watched videos shared by dozens of soldiers in the front lines. I'm amazed by their insight. Guys, you are right. I'm waiting for you in Yerevan to finally solve the problem of those howling under the walls. I'm proud of you." The opposition called it a threat of physical violence and urged law enforcement to take action. An opposition figure wrote, "Pashinyan will soon go underground". The Human Rights Ombudsman asked the public not to share hateful social media posts. An opposition figure Andranik Tevanyan urged ruling QP MPs to resign otherwise "they'll be held accountable". "Any MP who leaves the party will be given a humanitarian path to exit. Otherwise, everyone will sign under the agreement of capitulation and self-destruction." Three QP MPs had resigned amid the turmoil. Prime Minister office chief of staff: the latest comment by PM was interpreted in various ways. Many thought of it as an attempt to incite a civil war. I assure you it was a misunderstanding. The post was a "thank you" to the heroic men who fought in front lines for weeks, who are now calling for the public not to fall for provocations and to unite for the sake of Armenia and Artsakh. The U.S. Ambassador spoke with QP Party leader Lilith Makunts. Both reaffirmed their joint commitment to strengthening democracy and the rule of law in Armenia. "Political violence & intimidation have no place in a democratic society," said the Ambassador." Artsakh president Arayik has called for political peace in Armenia. He added that the process of recovering bodies continues. 150 more bodies were transferred from Shushi. https://news.am/arm/news/613638.html President Sarkissian has called for restraint and vigilance despite the pain. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034968.html Pashinyan: regarding my earlier Facebook post. I wrote that I await them in Yerevan. Some interpreted that as a call for civil war and clashes. If you watch the videos I responded to, the soldiers are returning home after being discharged, without weapons. I chose to publicly announce a meeting with them upon their return. No one is returning from the front lines with weapons. As for the phrase "those howling under the walls", I chose to use that harsh statement because certain official bodies also used it (maybe referring to a judge who earlier made a statement about "howling", followed by assassination suspect Arthur Vanetsyan being released from jail). When the frontline soldiers return, we'll find out answers to many questions and put an end to the conspiracy theories about political-military leadership. I spoke with the police to make sure none of the returning soldiers have weapons. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034970.html The ruling Parliamentary party launched a process to terminate BHK leader Gagik Tsaraukyan's MP mandate. They will send a petition to the Constitutional court. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035020.html https://www.reuters.com/article/us-armenia-security-premiearmenia-says-prevented-assassination-attempt-on-prime-minister-idUSKBN27U0P1 , https://www.facebook.com/nikol.pashinyan/ , https://factor.am/309898.html , https://factor.am/309896.html , https://news.am/arm/news/613624.html , https://news.am/arm/news/613623.html , https://news.am/arm/news/613619.html , https://news.am/arm/news/613609.html , https://t.me/infocomm/26423 , https://news.am/arm/news/613637.html , https://twitter.com/usembarmenia/status/1328046501529067521?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1328046501529067521%7Ctwgr%5E&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.am%2Farm%2Fnews%2F613633.html , The opposition parties resumed their rallies. The demands are the same: Pashinyan should resign, they won't hold any meetings or discussions with him. They marched to the prosecutors' office. "Nikol, the public will pay your pension and ensure your safety, just leave," said an ARF official. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035035.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035048.html , https://news.am/arm/news/613699.html , https://youtu.be/PfGmUBibPSY Prosecutors will appeal the lower court decision that kept Arthur Vanetsyan out of jail. He is one of the former officials suspected of organizing a coup and assassination of the Prime Minister. The lower court didn't find enough evidence to keep him locked up pre-trial. Another suspect, Vahram Baghdasaryan, was also released by the court. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035050.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035050.html , https://news.am/arm/news/613670.html Former general prosecutor Gevorg Kostanyan urged his ex-colleague prosecutors and cops to join their side and disobey the government. Context: Kostanyan is on the run. He was accused of being the "handler" who went between several law enforcement agencies in March 2008 to coordinate the disposal of bullet shells that the police forced fired at protesters. At the time, 8 protestors were killed. After the arrival of Pashinyan, a felony case was launched over the incident. Former president Kocharyan [president at the time of the incident] and several of his allies were charged. https://news.am/arm/news/613669.html Prosecutors urge opposition not to pressure law enforcement: Lately, individuals who have recently been prosecuted in various criminal cases, who evaded justice, and have the prospect of criminal liability, as well as their supporters, have been trying to manipulate the law enforcement bodies with emotional statements to influence their actions. The prosecutors and law enforcement are apolitical bodies. We condemn any attempts to involve them in political processes. The police continue to find weapons in cars returning from Artsakh. Kalashnikov and bullets were confiscated in Yeghegnadzor. https://factor.am/310467.html Human rights ombudsman condemned opposition and government figures for using provocative language. https://news.am/arm/news/613834.html
Pashinyan about the tense atmosphere and violence
Look at what happened to Parliament Speaker Ararat Mirzoyan (he was severely beaten by opposition activists, doctors saved his life with surgeries). Nothing of this kind has happened to opposition figures in the past 2.5 years (when he came into office). The majority of opposition did not even condemn the November 10th riots. I expect the opposition to publicly state that they are against political violence and the use of weapons. When the internal atmosphere improves, we'll be able to have a dialogue with the opposition to together overcome the situation. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034987.html
Pashinyan about the negotiations process
Artsakh's legal status must become the heart of the negotiation process with new intensity and new capacity. (Earlier he complained that for the last 25 years, the main negotiations were over giving lands to Azerbaijan with not enough emphasis on Artsakh status)
Pashinyan about soldiers
We have several hundred missing soldiers. I hope for the best. Yesterday several missing soldiers were found alive. Exchanging POWs will happen after the exchange of bodies. There will be a day of mourning once the process completes. We must help the wounded soldiers, and soldiers' family members now. There needs to be a continuous communication with them. The soldier must see that the country stands by him. There will be vocational training courses for those who want to change professions. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034971.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034974.html
Pashinyan about cooperating with the opposition
[Opposition says they can change the document to make it more favorable.] I have not received such an offer from them on how to improve the document's terms. Going backward and changing the terms of the signed document means changing the military status, which is impractical today. As for the future negotiations process, the document leaves many points for future clarification. During these clarifications, all the suggestions will be taken into account, and we will try to implement the best ones. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034975.html
Pashinyan about the negotiation process before the war and his responsibility
By May 2018 (before he took the office), the negotiation process had already crossed the point of no return. It was all about giving lands to Azerbaijan in exchange for nothing. Some HHK officials (today opposition) were publicly stating that there are complications and we'd need to give away lands. That means there are three options: either those former officials were oracles, or I'm a traitor, or the former officials already knew where the negotiations had reached. My administration tried to change the course of negotiations to make it more favorable. Unfortunately, we couldn't. There was already an international consensus that the lands must be given to Azerbaijan without any conditions. Were we supposed to give away the lands? We tried to resist through negotiations. I also took steps to prepare the army by improving the armament. I'm blamed for signing and giving away lands today. I'm also blamed for not giving them away sooner. Our army fought for as long as it was possible. There is no doubt that I am the number one public official responsible for the situation. I will stand before our people. However, the public should know all these details to make conclusions. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034979.html
Pashinyan about accusations of keeping other officials in dark
We held two security council meetings during the war, participated by Parliamentary parties, the President, the Church leader. We held separate meetings with non-Parliamentary opposition parties to discuss the situation. They were aware of the trends. Some of the decisions had to be made within hours at the request of the military, so we couldn't discuss it with opposition first. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034985.html
Pashinyan addressing rumors about "giving away Shushi"
The army fought a heroic battle until the last second, but the Armenian side lost Shushi because the enemy managed to penetrate the city. Shushi was not handed over. Artsakh president mentioned today about recovering 150 more bodies from Shushi. If the city was "given away", then who ordered them to fight. There were rumors about traitors inside Shushi who gave specific orders. The law enforcement questioned the person who spread the rumors to learn more details, but the person refused to answers questions. The truth is painful, but we lost Shushi because the enemy was able to break in. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034993.html
Pashinyan addressing opposition rumors about U.S.
Q: is it true that you consulted with the US before signing the Document? A: of course not. During this war, I've spoken with the US five times: three with O'Brian and two with Pompeo. We discussed suggestions from the US. On the other hand, there were days when I spoke with Putin five times a day. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034982.html
Pashinyan about Artsakh army
Artsakh will continue to have it's Defense Army, even after signing of the document. The army will have the same status. It must develop, strengthen, and be the guarantor of Artsakh sovereignty. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034988.html
NSS border defenders
National Security Services had also sent a group of volunteers and reservists. 46 sacrificed their lives, 191 wounded, 2 missing. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034989.html
Pashinyan meets political parties in Parliament for a 2-hour Q&A
Q: were there calculations before the war on how long we could last in the event of war, considering resource discrepancy?
We discussed this during the Security Council meetings on several occasions. Our conclusion was that we would have enough resources to resist aggression by the Azerbaijani army.
Q: why weren't there any steps to prevent the war?
Preventing a war was always on our agenda, but it has never been viewed as "at the cost of everything and anything". Preventing this war would mean "lands in exchange for peace" proposal. We would have to give away lands. That would be the continuation of the downward spiral in the negotiations that we've witnessed in the past many years when Armenia would agree to concede, then Azeris would demand more and more. Last year we decided to consolidate our physical power to resist possible attacks.
Q: How can people help Artsakh refugees now?
I spoke with the Artsakh president and I'm happy to say that many refugees are now returning to their homes. Over 1,000 by now. The houses should be renovated; our governments will work on it. Lachin corridor will reopen today and the process will expedite.
Q: where was our mistake? What were the shortcomings of air defense? Armament in the past 30 years?
Our mistake in the past 2.5 years was our inability to close the existing gaps in the army. Although we did have massive achievements in air defense. We purchased TOR, modernized OSA-AKA units, etc. Practice showed that these weapons aren't enough against the modern high-tech; a technology [Bayraktar] that came into play just in the past few months, and tipped the balance. Overall, Armenia's two biggest strategic mistakes post-1990s war were believing that we could forever avoid a war, and the idea of "don't give an inch of land". From 1998, there was only one significant emphasis: the return of 7 regions to Azerbaijan. This was the only clearly defined thing. Let's see what happened in international institutes in the past 25 years: Dozens of documents, resolutions, statements that re-enforced the idea of our requirement to give away lands. We should have chosen: either we give some lands, or we choose war.
Q: my research shows that the size of our conscript army shrank in half in the past 10 years. It was also our mistake that the ruling and opposition parties haven't done enough to address this. The opposition has its share to blame.
We are accused of failing foreign policy and giving away lands. So what did the opposition want: not to give away lands, or to avoid a war? You had to pick one. Now they say "why didn't you give away lands sooner to end the war sooner?". Because the war would not have ended sooner. It could stop under the conditions that we have today [land concessions]. The army and the govt chose to fight for as long as possible. We made our choice and I don't believe that was the wrong choice. Unfortunately, we failed to achieve the desired outcome.
Q: are there plans for internal stability? Any plan on consolidating efforts before future negotiations?
We need to condemn and avoid violence. I publicly declare that we don't want or incite civil unrest, and we ask the opposition to also declare that they don't plan to use force. If they do, we will have a peaceful dialogue. I have my doubts because when the November 10th riots took place and the Govt/Parliament were attacked, to this day the opposition hasn't condemned it. My appearance today is also an act of dialogue with the opposition. As for future negotiations, our top priority is the Artsakh status, refugee return, economical topics. All our efforts, including the Parliament, should be involved with the process.
Q: should there be a dialogue specifically with those opposition parties who are currently ready to be peaceful?
Dialogue is possible with any political party, as long as there is a willingness to have one. But they need to condemn violence first. I agree, we should all be careful with emotional statements.
Q: about future negotiations & elections
Q: what happened to our country was treason; I don't mean the document signed by you. Only during the war did we learn that the defense/MFA wasn't ready. Admit that you and your team failed. Certain officials should resign. As for the negotiation process, unlike [fellow] opposition members, I still believe that you should be the one to find a way out of this situation, and once the roadmap is clear, we need snap elections. If people vote for you again, so be it, continue with the work, but we need a roadmap for the future. A: the job of every agency is being analyzed. Our main task right now is to have a discourse under peaceful and democratic conditions. We can't hold elections right now. Once the peaceful atmosphere is restored, and there is no more doubt that the elections would be democratic, we can talk about new elections. I urge all opposition parties to publicly condemn violence and state that they don't plan to use force to achieve things. At the same time, our law enforcement is able to prevent any possible violence.
Q: we should strengthen the army. We are accused of not doing enough to find money to improve the army. People point where the money is. Any plans to recover them?
Today we have many former officials who make speeches about Artsakh. They possess millions of dollars worth of [embezzled] properties. These people have no right to speak about Artsakh. It's the money that they stole that could have formed institutes in Armenia. We talk about our diplomatic abilities today; our diplomatic potential would have been better had we invested in time. It wasn't done for decades. After coming to power in 2018, we followed the law, we said there won't be vendettas. We created legal methods to recover resources stolen from the public [asset forfeiture law]. These laws are starting to go into effect today. The recovered resources will be invested in our future potential. We cannot do vendettas, however.
Q: any mental health support for soldiers returning from war?
Yes. We discussed it with Healthcare Ministry. The private sector and businesses also offered to help with their resources.
Q: as far as I'm aware, in the prior negotiation packages, the status of Shushi was not part of any.
The past 2.5 years of negotiations and meetings had left no doubt that preventing the war would require Armenia giving away lands, and still have no status for Artsakh. We would also need to give up the right to discuss Artsakh's legal status in the near future, and also give Shushi. [Shushi part was later clarified since some people thought he was "lying" about Shushi being part of past negotiations] The opposition is showing a document and saying "Shushi isn't mentioned in this one". Yes, Shushi isn't in it, that's why that document was never accepted by Azerbaijan. [He is hinting that Azerbaijan has always wanted Shushi as its major goal and that every time Armenia yielded something, Azeris wanted more.] There are many documents. Was the Kazan document ever signed by Azerbaijan? There was another one before that. Why wasn't neither one of them accepted? Does no one ask? We had certain outcomes that we could have, under certain conditions. There were many documents. We can print a very favorable document and circulate it today, but it's nothing if it's rejected. Some documents are now circulated for propaganda purposes. The opposition is trying to say that at some point we had a better choice but we rejected it. We had two options after the 2016 clashes began: give up our rights or defend our rights. Do you not wonder why the 2016 war was stopped but this one wasn't? Do you know under what conditions the 2016 war was stopped? The opposition knew where the negotiation process was as of 2018, when they "predicted" a bad outcome upon my election. On the first day, I told you while standing here in Parliament: we can stop the war RIGHT NOW and the conditions that would stop it. The opposition decried the conditions. Now they say "why didn't you stop". Are we traitors for fighting? They rightfully blame us for high casualties, but at the same time, they blame us for saving 30,000 soldiers from encirclement by signing the Document. Let them not play oracle now.
Q: can you clarify the Shushi part, about it being or not being in negotiating documents?
I think I might not fully understand your context about the Shushi question, since it's being asked again. Are you asking if Shushi was part of the prior negotiation process? Please clarify. In any case, if we could preserve it, we would. MP Clarifying: you earlier said that the war could be avoided or stopped if Shushi was given to Azeris. But the Foreign Ministry spokesperson wrote, "the peace negotiations did not contain a question of giving away Shushi". This statement caused various interpretations. Clarify the Shushi part before and after the war. Pashinan: before the war, during the negotiations, there was always a topic about returning refugees to their homes. When on official-level we tried to obtain clarification on what that would mean, and what would be acceptable by Azerbaijan, it was clear that Azerbaijan always demanded that their refugees return to Shushi. Always. [Shushi region had a large Azeri population before 90s war. Azeris consider it as their crown jewel and the heart.] During the war, there were options to stop the war. Not in the very beginning, but at some point (5-7 days into war) Shushi became a demand by Azerbaijan. This is an undeniable fact. [tldr: on the 5-7th day of the war Armenians thought the army could defend Artsakh so they didn't accept a deal; later the Azeris demanded Shushi so Armenians decided to continue to fight instead of giving it away]
Q: the war showed that Armenia's only friend was Russia. did Turkey and Azerbaijan go for war thinking there were cracks in AM-RU relations?
Myth number 1: the AM-RU relations are bad that's why this happened. In the past 4-5 years, Russia's stance over Karabakh has not changed. Myth number 2: I was offered to resign to change the outcome of the war, but I refused and cling to power. I had a very direct and frank conversation with [Russians] and I asked if my resignation would change anything. There are people in Parliament who know all these details. Now I'm giving you details I wasn't supposed to; too much transparency. As for AM-RU relations, they were/are/remain strategic.
Q: refugees?
We're working on making it possible for refugees to return home and receive government assistance while already in Artsakh. The future negotiations will include discussions about the status of refugees who lost their homes (Hadrut), and possible options for their safe return.
Q: many countries came out of war and became stronger over time. Can we expect peace in the region?
We need to analyze how we used our past 2.5 years, but also for the past 30 years. In the past 30 years, we lived with the idea of "not an inch of land" and "prevent war", while in reality, we had to choose between the two. We had to pick one and focus on it. We made our choice [prepare for war instead of giving the adjacent regions] in the past 2.5 years and we lost, and I carry full responsibility. How many of you have visited the adjacent territories [that are will be soon given to Azerbaijan]? What work has been done in those regions in the past 30 years? [the former regime is accused of intentionally investing less money in 7 adjacent regions, expecting that one day they might belong to Azerbaijan]. For 30 years we screamed about the army being the institute with the highest rating, yet everyone tried to avoid serving in it. Was this not supposed to have its consequences? We need to review our model of patriotism. Let me give a bribe, escape the army, then make a toast to honor the army. Did we not think about this for 30 years? When we took a $10 bribe to vote for certain political parties for 30 years, when we evaded taxes, the large businesses evaded taxes then gave some donations and received praise in return; was this all going to go without consequences? I carry full responsibility for what had happened in the past 30 years. No one else does. I will stand in the court of public opinion, but I raise questions and I demand the answers. When for 30 years the public office was a way to embezzle public resources and we all knew and did nothing, aren't we not supposed to answer for it? We embezzled 30 years of our history. If Shushi was "sold", then it was sold in the past 30 years. Shushi is a grim-looking poor city. If you wanted Shushi, why did you keep it in that poor condition? Did you want those 7 regions? Then why did you not invest in them? They criticize me for visiting the Artsakh president's inauguration in Shushi. "Why did you do it in Shushi". For 30 years, the elites called Shushi an Armenian city, yet the president doesn't have the right to hold a ceremony there? Shushi was sold when for 30 years the headlines wrote "Shushi is Armenian", yet in their minds, it wasn't. What did you invest in Shushi? A few private donors gave charity. What else was done for Shushi by public officials? Shushi wasn't given on November 10th. Shushi was given when unruly weeds grew there for 30 years.
Q: how can we solve the Artsakh conflict now to prevent passing it to future generations?
We need to consolidate our resources. We need Armenians and Artsakh Armenians to live on their lands and create and prosper. It all comes down to education. Bribing to avoid military service is also part of education. We need a change of mentality. For 30 years we never made any major education reforms. The education system was a servant of the acting political party.
Q: when will we have the final number of casualties?
Identification and body exchange continues. We don't have final numbers. Some people were wondering if there were battles for Shushi. All you need to do is to look at the number of casualties on both sides in Shushi. 300 Armenian bodies were recovered in the past few days from Shushi. Some have spread rumors about generals and politicians ordering not to fight for Shushi. The law enforcement invited them to clarify the rumors. When asked by police to testify, the rumor-spreaders tell stories of "someone who I knew was sitting somewhere when someone came" yadda yadda.
Q: mobilization of troops?
The mobilization system is outdated. The army structure and its functional roles should undergo significant reforms. We have contractors. Their size increased in the past 7-8 years. Contract service is also a job place where villages earn extra money alongside their daily work. They have a great role in defending the border. However, during a major war, there is a problem with involving them in various types of activities. The contractors don't have the efficiency of special tasks. Since 2019 we worked on this. The 3rd Army Corps underwent reforms.
Q: any plans to strengthen ties with the diaspora?
The Armenian government will provide a one-time 68,000 Dram financial aid to refugees in addition to humanitarian aid. An additional 15,000 Drams if the person doesn't have a property in Armenia. The government receives lots of calls from refugees who want info about how to return home. They no longer need paperwork to be able to reach Stepanakert. The second group of Artsakh residents has moved back to Artsakh, accompanied by Russian peacekeepers. 19 buses transported 475 people, bringing the total from yesterday to 725. Stepanakert's N2 school has partially resumed the work. Children can register for classes. Russian peacekeepers cleared a 1km Lachin road from landmines. 27 damaged vehicles were removed from the roadside. Video: https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034966.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035046.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034995.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035028.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035065.html
Turkish Komando 404
WarGonzo reporter writes: the elite Turkish "Komando" special forces group routed from near Martuni on the last day of the war. (it was reported that Armenian fend off an attack, but details weren't given). These troops were then redirected towards Shushi. A special knife belonging to Komandos was confiscated by Armenian troops near Martuni. [The outlet obtained the names of Turkish commanders. There were 600 Turkish special forces in Azerbaijan.] https://news.am/arm/news/613725.html , https://t.me/wargonzo/4033
Polls about peacekeepers / Agreement / Nikol traitor or not?
Do you support the presence of Russian peacekeepers? 82% Yes. Do you support the November 10th Agreement signed by AM-RU-AZ? 44% yes, 41% no.
The primary reasons why it happened: 66% believe it was signed for the safety of Artsakh residents and soldiers. 19% believe Pashinyan committed treason. 16% believe it was a diplomatic failure. 11% said it was a military failure. 2% said the former government's past actions were the primary reason. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035005.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035008.html
demonstrations
Armenians held a demonstration in front of the Turkish consulate in New York with slogans calling Turkey denialist and Azerbaijan a liar. "Artsakh is Armenia. Recognize the Artsakh Republic." Video: https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034969.html
COVID
ex-president Serj Sargsyan's wife Rita is in a critical condition. She's diagnosed with COVID. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035033.html , Armenian-American Nubar Afeyan's MODERNA company has recorded a 96% effectiveness by the COVID vaccine. 30,000 had participated in the trials. Pfizer had also created a vaccine with similar results. A Russian vaccine also recorded a 92% efficiency. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035040.html
Hello! I know, i know, im late, it's a busy week for me lol. Both busy with my other life (I run a path of exile guild), and trying to correct sleep from the last event (started at 4am lol). Anyway I hope you all are doing amazing. There might be some controversial picks here but judging by how the last event went, MMA be wild. (D) - Debut (c) - Champ FLS - Fight Lose Streak FWS - Fight Win Streak NS - No Streak (#x) - Rank in Division Lets go! Prelims Women’s Flyweight Victoria Leonardo (D) (8-2-0, 2 FWS) v Manon Fiorot (D) (5-1-0, 5 FWS) - This is a relatively obscure match up, mostly because it’s a double debut but otherwise there’s not much to know about either woman. Leonardo showed incredible pressure and determination when she fought against Hackett. She did have some gaps in her style, her striking wasn’t all that it was cracked up to be, but her wrestling and control was awesome. Fiorot is a big mystery fighter for me, on Tapology it shows that she’s P4P best female fighter in the middle east, which doesn’t tell me much because really, P4P doesn’t mean shit if it’s not in the UFC, right? Anyway, her opponents have been less than dangerous, a bumpy road perhaps, One thing stood out, her last weigh in was at 137.4 pounds, which isn’t only in bantamweight, but also over the limit. She’s dropping down to flyweight, so I wonder if she’ll be healthy or ready. At the moment I'm heavily leaning on Leonardo, but that’s out of speculation of how Fiorot will look on the scales. The prediction is locked in, regardless of how good Fiorot looks. Leonardo via UD Bantamweight Ricky Simon (16-3-0, NS) v Gaetang Pirrello (D) (15-5-1, 2 FWS) - A fairly action packed match up to start off the year. Simon is a nuclear submarine packed into a Bantamweight body, the amount of work he does in a fight is impressive, wild striking, powerful takedowns, nonstop movement and putting on an impossible pace for 3 rounds. Simon is everything you want in a fighter, he has all the skill set, the movement, the feints, the switch of target (head, then body), the top pressure… He has had some setbacks but his fight against Ray Borg is his best performance yet, and if we see that, against Pirrello, woo boy. Pirrello has been going around the regional european circuits most of his career, He has showcased excellent striking and power, ending 11 of his 15 fights by knockout. He’s a dangerous fighter for sure, but I don’t think he has faced anyone like Simon though. His resume is somewhat iffy, as he has faced many fighters who have far more losses than wins, or are very inexperienced. I got Simon on this one. I highly expect Simon to just ragdoll Pirrello and work him on the ground. The safest bet however is Simon via UD. Either way, Simon has this. Simon via Sub R2 Bantamweight Umar Nurmagomedov (D) (12-0-0, 12 FWS) v Sergey Morozov (D) (#4 Russia) (16-3-0, 5 FWS) - This is a big debut for Nurmagomedov who made waves in the russian regional circuit. Nurmagomedov, is the cousin of our own Nurmagomedov, don’t forget the name because boy can these guys wrestle. Nurmagomedov is like a bantamweight version of Khabib, i know that’s basic to say but really, dudes got solid pressure and it’s not like he fought nobodies, he fought people with more experience than him, who were heavy hitters, good wrestlers, and he bested them all. The UFC is the next big step for him and I’m roughly 70% sure he’ll do good. There’s not that many wrestlers in 135 so there is a fairly decent chance that he could rise to stardom. Maybe i'm riding the hype train a little too early, so consider me one foot in the door, the other on the platform. Morozov is a fairly dominant striker who has significant knockouts in his career, against relatively tough guys, but one thing that makes me interested is the face that he faced Evloev, who we all know is a fucking monster in the cage. If he experienced that type of pressure and skill from a UFC fighter, then that’s valuable experience he could bring into this fight. Anyway, enough MMA Math for now, I feel like Nurmagomedov has this one though. Nurmagomedov via UD Lightweight Mike Davis (8-2-0, NS) v Mason Jones (D) (10-0-0, 10 FWS) - A very interesting debut, also, the 5th debut this card, that’s 3 fights with one or two debuting fighters. Davis is coming off a win over a year ago against the fairly hittable but durable Thomas Gifford, which still breaks my heart to watch, the amount of unnecessary punishment that Gifford took was disgusting. Davis did show some fairly accurate striking throughout all three rounds however, throughout all 3 fights in the UFC (including DWCS) he did seem very hittable himself. His striking defence isn’t exactly good, he seems to be all offense and violence, which is great and exciting, but if he faces a strategic and striker then he’s maybe in trouble. Jones is currently undefeated and one hell of an interesting addition. He is the two time lightweight and welterweight CW Champ and if that’s not impressive then i don’t know what the fuck is, CW is a relatively decent promotion with great fighters, so the fact that he fought two tough opponents for the vacant titles, won, and now transitioned over to the UFC, is pretty sick. Jones is very well rounded, he has excellent striking and a savage ground game and I cannot wait to see how he handles the competition in the UFC, he seems very capable and i’m leaning on him winning this one, a very interesting addition indeed. Jones via Sub R2 Bantamweight Jerome Rivera (10-3-0, NS) v Francisco Figueiredo (D) (11-3-1, NS) - What is with the Figueiredo brothers and draws? Rivera had a very rough debut against tyson Nam last year and whilst it definitely did not end in his favour, he did have some potential, and due to his unique height advantages in bantamweight, i highly expect him to use rangey kicks and excellent foot movement to avoid Figueiredo from getting in striking distance. He also seems to be a fairly capable grappler but I don’t think he’s going to risk going to the ground against someone like Figueiredo, so I absolutely think it’ll be a strike and evade gameplan for Rivera. Figueiredo looks absolutely fucking identical to his older brother, its scary. Unfortunately that same look does not apply to the capabilities in the octagon. Figueiredo is good, but he’s not as good as his brother, He is very well rounded, has power in his hands and is great on the ground, but ultimately falls short when it comes to facing legitimate competition. He has some questionable wins over some rather shit fighters (3 times the loss as wins for example). He has faced John Lineker a while back and lost via KO, but that no doubt would have been valuable experience. At the moment, i’m leaning on Rivera, but if Figueiredo is anything like his brother, then well, it’ll be interesting. Rivera via UD Light Heavyweight Dalcha Lungiambula (10-2-0, NS) v Markus Perez (12-4-0, 2 FLS) - An interesting fight. Lungiambula is a knockout machine with incredible power and speed in his hands. His rushing forward style does leave him open to vulnerabilities like a straight hand counter or a knee, but ultimately if he charges towards you, run because it’s gonna hurt like a motherfucker when it lands. Perez better learn some lateral movement because I honestly don’t see Perez surviving this one for a long time. Lungiambula also has some crazy explosive wrestling on his side, capable of lifting and slamming his opponents to the ground, following up with brutal ground and pound shots. People mistake him as this one dimensional wrecking ball, but he is well rounded and crazy explosive at whatever the hell he chooses to do. Perez is on a tough losing streak at the moment, with his recent loss being by way of devastating knockout by newcomer Du Plessis. Perez has beautiful movement, he’s very… flowy and will fire off shots freely without much of a set up, he has a wide variety of strikes and styles which might throw off Lunguambula, especially if there is a lot of movement involved (i highly think there will be), but ultimately it comes down to whether or not Perez can avoid the sudden burst of aggression and power from Lungiammbula. Lungiambula via KO R2 Flyweight Su Mudaerji (13-4-0, 2 FWS) v Zarruck Adashev (3-2-0, NS) - This is a fun one. I love Mudaeji’s style, he is disgustingly fast with his kicks, he’s super loose on the feet and his basic striking capabilities are masterful. Now, what I mean by that is whilst he doesn’t have that many advanced skills from what we have seen, his ability to land simple shots, super effectively is still there, the kids a sniper, to put it plainly, and he’s very dangerous, and way more experienced than Adashev in MMA. Adashev is a very experienced kickboxer who just recently transitioned to MMA and whilst the road has been a little bumpy, his style seems to be relentless pressure and fast striking but Mudaerji has gorgeous movement and kicks so that might eliminate the possibility of Adashev just simply walking down Mudaerji. I’m still not sold on Adashev, I know he’s got gorgeous kickboxing and has 19 kickboxing bouts, but this is MMA, sure he can bring over that same skill but will it be effective against a talented striker like Mudaerji? I personally don’t think so. Mudaerji via KO R2 Omari Ahkmedov (#14) (20-5-1, NS) v Tom Breese (12-2-0, NS) - Akhmedov had a grueling fight against Weidman, and lost surprising enough. I honestly thought he had all the tools to win that fight but he just didn’t step up to the occasion. Akhmedov is an excellent pressure fighter, with the tendency to takedown his opponents and just smother them with punches and grind out a win, he saps the energy of his opponents every time the fight goes to the ground and he’s in control. He just non-stop deals damage and tires them out, it's not a pretty style, it's quite boring, but it’s pretty damn effective. Breese is a very effective boxer, he has gorgeous jabs and his ability to time his punches on an off-step of his opponents just shows how well he reads his opponents. I do question his takedown defence though, we haven’t seen a whole lot of it because most of his fights are on the feet, but if he has prepared himself properly for this fight and worked on his defensive grappling, he’ll be fine against Akhmedov. Breese is a great striker and not very one dimensional, so i’m leaning on him to get this win. His knockout against Bhullar was just something of pure beauty. I was going to predict that Breese gets this KO in the last round, but Breese’s performance and cardio drops off in the last round, so i’ll go with Round 2. Breese via KO R2 Main Card Featherweight Lerone Murphy (9-0-1, NS) v Douglas Andrade (26-3-0, NS) - An interesting fight, and a great opportunity for Murphy. Murphy is a phenomenal boxer, he’s incredibly fast on his feet and he’s very fluid with his movement, a lot of great feints and he gives off some funny looks that are hard to read. He is also a fairly decent wrestler, he’s smart and dominating at the same time, not taking any risks. He is a fairly well rounded fighter and someone i’m gonna be keeping my eye on. Andrade has been around for a very long time, he seems to be no longer at his peak. He has 19 knockouts on his record which is a phenomenal amount but he also hasn’t knocked anyone out in the UFC other than Henry Briones. It’s possible that the step up in competition from Jungle Fights to the UFC has diminished his ability to fire off his punches, and in this bout I don’t think that Murphy will allow Andrade to get close enough to land shots. There is a significant reach advantage for Murphy coming into this fight at 5 inches, and Murphy is already a long fighter so I feel like all of the advantages here land in Murphy’s hand. He has the knockout power, the speed and movement to avoid any forward momentum that Andrade has, and he’ll win this one in the second or third round. Murphy via KO R2 Flyweight Tyson Nam (20-11-1, 2 FWS) v Matt Schnell (#11) (14-5-0, NS) - Nam is on a hot streak right now. Nam was someone that i was somewhat skeptical about, he’s getting old (or at least up there in age), and he had a very rocky start in the UFC, but if these last two performances tell me anything, it’s that Nam still has the patience, and power to put away his opponents. Both fights ended in near identical ways, counters or return shots, both gorgeous to watch. Nam is very well rounded, he has great kickboxing, he’s very durable and when he wrestles, he’s very quick to maintain a good position and set up a submission. That’s not always the case though and I highly suspect he’s on the verge of slowing down performance wise. Schnell is a brilliant grappler who no doubt will be looking to take this fight to the ground, he would want to avoid the bombs of Nam and tire him out on the ground. I don’t see him exchanging shots at all because well, Nam would put him to sleep. So, I feel like Schnell will try to drive Nam towards the fence, either through pressure or feinting strikes to go for a takedown, or Nam would just simply bop him in the face and deter that from happening. I’m leaning on Nam on this one, He’s getting old but that hasn’t slowed him down yet. Nam via KO R1 Women’s Flyweight Roxanne Modafferi (#9) (25-17-0, NS) v Viviane Araujo (#11) (9-2-0, NS) - This is going to be one of those fights that you really want to skip but then realize that whatever happens in a Roxanne fight can be a meme. Modafferi is a fighter. I don’t know what she is in terms of style, maybe a wrestler? But she’s definitely not a striker. If you saw her work a heavy bag you would think that it’s a 80 year old learning boxing for the first time. It’s funky. It’s stiff and well, it’s sponsored by P3. In all seriousness, Modafferi is a very tough and durable fighter who is incredibly experienced. I think the most experienced womens fighter the UFC has? The way she tore apart Barber was a surprise and well, since then she hasn’t exactly done much. Almost all of her fights in the past decade have been via decision, and she hasn’t won a whole lot recently. It’s tough, you predict against her, she wins, you predict that she’ll win, she loses. Araujo is far more simpler when it comes to predicting if she’s going to win or now. Araujo is a very accomplished grappler who does her best work on the ground. She’s also a ferocious volume based striker, she doesn’t have knockout power but she’s got the speed and skill that Roxanne doesn’t have. Despite Roxanne being taller than Araujo, there is an almost tie in terms of reach advantage, so i highly suspect that Araujo will use that to her advantage and just get in range and keep a solid pressure going. Don’t get angry with this prediction because well, whenever Roxanne Modafferi is fighting, you don’t know how she’s going to perform. Araujo via UD Light Heavyweight Ike Villanueva (16-11-0, 2 FLS) v Vinicius Moreira (9-4-0, 3 FLS) - This is a tough one because both fighters are just dangerously hittable. Villanueva has been on the ass end of some solid fighters recently, losing to Jordan Wright and Chase Sherman, he just seems to be canon fodder for the newcomers, despite being a somewhat newcomer himself. He has not shown much to us. He no doubt has power in his hands but that seems to be it really. He’s coming in as a sizable disadvantage in terms of height and reach but that doesn’t mean much in MMA in the long run, especially when it’s two sluggers fighting it out. Moreira is perhaps closer to being cut than Villanueva, but he has one clear way to victory, and that’s to grapple, he’s much bigger than Villanueva and no doubt can overpower him and take him to the ground. He just needs to actually do it to win, and not eat all of the shots because boy is Moreira a punching bag. So, at the end of the day, this is basically a striker v grappler fight, and in this case, i’m leaning on Villanueva to win this one. But really, anything can happen. Not super confident on this one. Villanueva via KO R1 Co-Main Event Welterweight Warlley Alves (13-4-0, NS) v Mounir Lazzez (10-1-0, 3 FWS) - What a fight this will be. Alves is one tough cookie to crack, he has beautiful movement that’s very hard to read. His leg kick efficiency against Moraes was insane, his ability to adjust his style just a little bit in order to land those leg kicks was imperative to his win. Alves is very well rounded but not very good in any particular field of fighting, maybe his ground game is great but I don’t think it will go there this fight.Lazzez made an excellent debut against Alhassan last year and even though he ate some disgusting shots early in the fight, he is one of the most aware newcomers I have seen at welterweight. He has a gorgeous style of striking, mixing everything into his strikes, lead elbows, naked knees, fast kicks and not always a headhunter, he’s insane. I absolutely love everything about him. He’s also big, tall, and knows how to use his range with his striking. A very, very interesting prospect. I got Lazzez on this one if you haven’t guessed that already. Lazzez via KO R2 Main Event Welterweight Michael Chiesa (#11) (16-4-0, 3 FWS) v Neil Magny (#8) (24-7-0, 3 FWS) - Definitely one that i’ve been waiting for. Chiesa is low key one of my favourite fighters in terms of personality. He’s huge for a welterweight but an elite grappler on the ground, he’s absolutely dominant and his last 3 opponents will tell you that. Chiesa is incredibly heavy on the ground, he gives his opponents no room to move and if they do have any balls to stand up he’s taking them back to the ground, back to his domain. This fight will be different compared to his last 3 opponents though, considering that he’s facing a soon-to-be contender and not someone who is on their way out. Chiesa is not a striker, he can punch and kick like any other fighter out there, but he doesn’t excel at it. His ultimate reliance is on his pressure and proclivity to take down and grind out his opponents until they’re dust. If Magny has worked on the ground significantly during camp for this fight, then I see Chiesa maybe struggling a bit, but for now, i see Chiesa being the far better grappler. Magny is a fucking cardio machine. He looks great in all 5 rounds, always throwing strikes, landing heavy, moving forward and just giving off immense pressure. He is always making his opponent work, whether its to avoid strikes or to get up from the ground, Magny is a fucking machine and if he can pressure Chiesa back to the cage and disable him from shooting effectively, he’s gonna win, but this is tough for me because well, Chiesa is a personal favourite and it’d suck for me if he lost. I don’t know who's going to win this one, If i was to place 100 bucks (too broke for that) i’d put money on Magny winning, He was incredibly active during 2020, winning 3 times against Lawler, Martin and Li, all of those are super tough fighters, so i’m gonna have to lean on Magny. Magny via KO R4 And that's it! If you saw copies of some predictions from last event, that's because some of those fights for transferred to this card. Don't mind the lazy copy pasta for those fights lol. If you wish to support me please message me and i can provide details on how you can do so. If you would like to follow me on twitter, you can find me @Slayer_Tip or if you want, add me on discord and we can have a super friendly chat about all things MMA: Slayertip#7013 Lets have a fun discussion down below, let me know if you agree/disagree with my picks :) But for now, have a beautiful week, take care of yourselves :)
Do you guys think religion can slow down our transhumanist goals?
Religion is still rapidly growing in the 21sth century and majority of humans are still religious and Billions still believe in baby jesus and heavenly rewards of interdimensional 74 virgins ....So obviously, majority of people still think that our ideas are blasphemous or unnatural, heck majority of people are still weirded out by transgender people or gays! Which makes you think how will these people are gonna react to transhumanists with cybernetic bodies or genetically engineered cat girls....Anyways, I think that the future humans will be a science based species and that our perception will become more and more matched with reality and that the knowledge of religion will simply be stored in the cloud.....Not to tip my Fedora too hard but I'm actually a theist because I believe in the simulation theory......What do you guys think?...am I being too biased against religion?....religion can bring hope to those people in need, create communities and improve the wellbeing and longevity of people just by going to a place of worship... Just look at the blue zones...Religious people live statistically longer than non religious people, So religion may give you the edge you need if you wanna live long enough for the singularity but if daddy Kurzweil's prediction fails, then hope for the longevity escape velocity....but at the same time, you hear these stories of priests, pastors raping children...You see these evangelicals taking advantage of people's faith to become more wealthier and people beheading people or blowing themselves up for a reward we secular people know doesn't exist......Religion can also be used to promote facism, for example, Russia, A place where you will never dare to invade in winter and its also a place where it's legal to domestically abuse your wife...Yeah, Search that up....Russian priests justified the beatings as mere protection, against the death, of the soul! Now they are trying to ban abortion...Even buddhism isn't safe, just look up the Rohingya massacre.......So let me ask you again...Should we create an army of fedora tippers and abandon religion altogether?....or should we hang up the fedora so we wouldn't die an early death? Transhumania, A transhumanist youtuber that I'm totally not a fan girl of...is saying that we should turn all world religions into some kind of secular transhumanism because complex theology will totally convert the average religious nut into some kind of futurist that deeply cares for body augmentation, Yeah I kinda find that unrealistic ....idk...what do you guys think? Do you want robot arms but also have an unquenchable desire to worship baby Jesus?... Share your thoughts down below!
At this point trump could let Russian troops come into the us and tell his base that he’s going to let Russia run our country and his base would still find a way to support him.
I’m still baffled by how brainwashed these people are. I know 1 day all types of studies and books will be published about how these people got so cult like. He doesn’t even have supported he has a cult following who swear he’s god gift to earth. Trump could literally come into their house and rape their wife and children and they would say “ he had his reasons MAGA “ . Half of our population of non brainwashed people who are Able to think freely and critically all see trump is the most dangerous man in American history, a huge liar and con artist. While a % of our population will never ever admit he’s ever done anything wrong. I’m wondering if there will ever be anything that will make these people say “ this has gone to far “. They claim to be patriots and trump is biggest traitor there is. The Republican Party since Reagan has always be so anti Russia and now they are pro Russia and refuse to ever see how corrupt and fucked Russia is. I’m really curious and obviously nervous how this is all gonna end. I feel like we have only hit the tip of the iceberg in terms of uncovering the depths of trumps secrets and explosive security threats and lies. Does anyone think there will ever be anything to make trumps base turn on him or make the Qanons realize how brainwashed they are and how incredible ludicrous they shit they believe is ? Or does anyone have any predictions of the next person to turn on trump or leaks that will co d out ?
Silly Season 2020 continues, this time blowing up the only USA team on the grid. Haas has decided to part ways with both of their long-time drivers Romain Grosjean and Kevin Magnussen. Team Principal Guenther Steiner, ever the honest lad, cites financial reasons for ending their collaboration with the two drivers. With any open seats, rumors swirl on who may fill them, including both young and experienced options. On the younger side, the Ferrari Academy drivers in contention for the Formula 2 championship - Callum Ilott and Mick Schumacher - and Russian F2 driver Nikita Mazepin seem to be the front-runners with Sergio Pérez and Nico Hülkenberg still stalking about for a drive in Formula 1 next year. As for Grosjean and Magnussen, what is next? Obviously, both will want to return to the F1 grid but with open seats a rare commodity now, it seems more likely they drive in another series next season. Grosjean has Le Mans experience and is very interested in Peugeot’s new Le Mans hypercar program (bonus points for being French), while Magnussen looks poised to drive in an USA based race series - his father raced Corvettes in IMSA/Le Mans GT cars for several years - in either IndyCar or endurance racing.
Racing Point and COVID-19
For the second time this year, we have confirmation that a Racing Point driver has contracted COVID-19. Remember the kerfuffle of Nico Hülkenberg driving his Porsche in record time down to the Nürburgring to fill in for an “ill” Lance Stroll? Turns out Stroll did test positive for coronavirus after the race weekend. Stroll has since recovered and tested negative for COVID-19 several times since the Eifel GP, but this situation with a late report of a positive coronavirus case raises questions for both Racing Point and Formula 1’s testing and reporting policies. Other players in the paddock have taken notice and want to make sure that testing does not lapse down the backstretch of the season. Worth noting: we have made it through 11 race weekends in 8 different countries with no major drama surrounding the coronavirus and Formula 1 seems to have handled the pandemic better than most international sports. Not a reason to slow testing or lose vigilance, but great news for the sport and a testament to the professionalism of Formula 1 top to bottom personnel.
History in the Making
This weekend, Lewis Hamilton races for the record. At the Eifel GP two weeks ago, Hamilton’s win tied Michael Schumacher’s long-standing record of 91 race wins. Mercedes, as with the rest of the season, is the clear favorite going into the weekend and Hamilton is on red-hot form - even though Bottas will be looking to spoil his pairt, it is a good bet Hamilton overtakes Schumacher in the record book to become the winningest Formula 1 driver of all time on Sunday. If you missed the end of the race in Germany, check out this very emotional “tip-of-the-cap” moment between Hamilton and Mick Schumacher.
Track and Tech Talk
For the second time this season, Formula 1 races a circuit for the very first time. This time around we visit the Autodrómo International do Algarve in the southwest corner of Portugal, just a quick drive from Portimão. The circuit offers new challenges for the drivers and could lead to some exciting racing over the weekend. The current outright lap record is held by the 2010 Peugeot LMP1, so a new lap record is likely to be set tomorrow during qualifying. The track is a roller coaster, with several short, steep inclines and declines. The start-finish straight is on a bit of plateau and the “infield” section features several downhill braking zones, increasing lock up risk, particularly into Turn 5 after the short back straight. Combine hills with a slippery new track surface, recently resurfaced by management, and the hardest possible set of Pirellis, and this morning’s Free Practice 1 was set to be a slippery one. Bonus points to this cameraman this week. Thank you for taking us the behind the scenes. And, our good friend Bernd Mayländer offered some thrills as well, showing exactly how the Stewards will be watching track limits. Several drivers lost their lap times at the exit Turn 4 as they tried to find early pace onto the short straight. The hairpin at Turn 5 is also under scrutiny this weekend. It is hard to see the elevation changes at times, so here is a great look at the whole track from the broadcast helicopter. As we approach the end of the season, several teams have already moved on to their 2021 car development, notably Mercedes. Team Principal Toto Wolff shared that, due to the rules changes for 2021, Mercedes has long finished their performance upgrades and looks to next year’s car. Lastly, 8 of the 10 teams have new power unit elements this weekend. At this point, every car on the grid is carrying at least some final parts for the season - replacements now almost certainly mean grid penalties so look for teams to get as much mileage as possible to the end of the season.
Free Practice 1
The first-ever practice session at Portimão proved to be a tricky one for many, at times looking more like Tokyo Drift than F1, the track being very green. Carlos Sainz was the first to find out how much, as the Spaniard slid all over the place on his first couple of laps, saying on his team radio: “There is just no grip.” A few moments later Max Verstappen fell victim to the lack of grip, the Dutch driver spinning as he came out of Turn 4, the Red Bull quickly back on his way. A couple of minutes later, Charles Leclerc suffered a small tankslapper, but managed to get his rear wheels out of the gravel trap. The drivers made sure to test the track limit sensors in this session as a whopping 65 laps were deleted. Track limits at Portimão are enforced at Turns 1, 4 & 15. At the end of the session, Valtteri Bottas topped the timing charts followed by his usual Top 3 companions. Slight concerns arose when Esteban Ocon saw his Renault smoking heavily at the drop of the checkered flag. The team later confirmed that an oil leak caused the smoke and there are no concerns for the next sessions.
Free Practice 2
After lunch, Pirelli had their chance to shine in the Portuguese sun. The first 30 minutes of the practice session were dedicated to testing new 2021 tire compounds (with sleek black lettering). Pirelli tested several compounds on different cars to determine the C1 (hardest) tire for next season. Drivers complained about lack of grip for the entire test period but the test was mandatory, under authority of the FIA, so the teams just had to deal until they finished their mandatory laps. After 30 minutes, teams started their usual programmes, but they could not get into a good rhythm, as the last hour of practice was incident packed. With 45 minutes remaining, we see huge flames rise from the AlphaToastyAlphaTauri of Pierre Gasly. Marshals ran towards the burning car and quickly put out the flames, but the damage appeared extensive. We are waiting more information but all signs point to a Power Unit related issue, either turbocharger or exhaust or oil leakage. We will update in the comments as we learn more. It took some time to clean up the mess from Gasly’s fire, but when the session did restart it only lasted for a short span before another incident. Again, as we have seen often this season, Max Verstappen seemed really agitated during free practice. First, he cursed out Sainz for overtaking him and eventually his frustration culminated in Lance Stroll and Verstappen colliding in as both turned in for Turn 1. Both drivers were summoned to the Stewards room but decision has been that no further action is warranted. After Stroll’s Racing Point was taken out of the gravel trap, there were less than 10 minutes remaining and nobody was able to put in a solid run. When the flag dropped, Bottas again topped the session. While the overall timing sheet is not representative for the rest of the weekend, especially after the red flags, it is nice to see McLaren and Ferrari near the top of the sheets. The rest of the weekend will be very interesting. Tomorrow will be a tense day for teams hoping to make it into Q3, with track limits an ever present danger. Drivers will have to reach the very limit of the track and their car, but if they go over that edge, their time will be deleted and we have seen front-runners getting in trouble because of it, most recently in Russia with Lewis Hamilton.
Predictions for Tomorrow
layres3 Look out for the McLaren lads tomorrow in qualifying. Norris and Sainz finished Free Practice 2 in P3 and P5 on quick last minute one-lap runs after the red flag for Stroll’s car. With Renault and Racing Point looking slower this week, I see the orange cars qualifying very competitively: P4 and P7. showstopperNL I’m expecting big things from Renault again. While it isn’t obvious looking at today’s practice i’ve been really impressed at their progress this season. If they can control their reliability, mainly for Ocon, I can see them finishing in a solid best of the rest position. Join us right here tomorrow for FP3 and Qualifying!
Puerto Rico has declared a state of emergency over its deep-rooted problem of violence against women, creating new measures that activists have demanded for years to battle a deadly tide. The US territory sustains a high levels of violence that on average results in one woman's death per week Comments || Link
People who jump-to-conclusions are more likely to make reasoning errors, to endorse conspiracy theories and to be overconfident despite poor performance. However, these "sloppy" thinkers can be taught to carry out more well-thought out decisions by slowing down and having some humility. Comments || Link
Biomarkers in mother’s plasma predict a type of autism in offspring with 100% accuracy. It’s the first time that machine learning has been used to identify with 100% accuracy maternal autoantibody-related autism spectrum disorder-specific patterns as potential biomarkers of ASD risk. Comments || Link
Baby tyrannosaurs were only the size of a Border Collie dog when they took their first steps, a team of palaeontologists has discovered. The creatures—which lived more than 70m years ago—were only about 3ft long when hatched, despite being able to grow to 40ft in length and weighing about 8 tonnes. Comments || Link
You can send something to the Moon, for free! I'm creating a Lunar time capsule via Reddit - Sending up to 10mb of data to the Moon for up to 100,000 people! Comments || Link
TIL Larry Hillblom, the H of DHL, regularly took "sex safari" trips to Asia to prey on underage girls. When he died in a plane crash, 4 of the illegitimate children he fathered were able to claim $50 million each from his estate. Comments || Link
TIL about practice babies. In the early to mid 1900s, orphaned babies were lent out to college home economics programs where they were taken care of entirely by groups of students in order to learn child-rearing skills. Comments || Link
TIL buffets are called "vikings" in Japan. This is because a Japanese restaurant manager went to Sweden and liked smörgåsbords so much he copied the idea at his restaurant. This Swedish word was too hard to pronounce in Japanese, so the word "vikings" was used instead after a employee suggested it. Comments || Link
Billy Crystal Shares Update On Pixar's Disney+ Sequel Series 'Monsters At Work' - "It's fantastic looking, it's hilarious, and we're having a lot of fun doing it." Comments || Link
I’m interested in learning more about authoritarianism, specific (arguably) authoritarian regimes (especially China, Russia, and North Korea), democratic backsliding, the possibility of stable and/or global totalitarianism, and related topics. As such, I’d be interested in: I imagine such a collection could be useful for other people too. I’ll also share the relevant books and links that I know about already. (One type of book I don’t already know of examples of is biographies of relevant political leaders; please feel free to recommend some biographies of that kind!) 2 more paragraphs...
Veteran PredictIt trader writes a pretty good guide on how to make money on prediction markets.
Metaculus and Hypermind both have new COVID-19 forecasting tournaments.
I created a search engine for probabilities.
Sign up here or browse past newsletters here. Hypermind is an American-French forecasting platform with a somewhat outdated and clunky interface. They have a new COVID-19 Recovery contest with $7000 in promised prizes so far, with the amount set to increase as more questions get added. The contest is sponsored by the Open Philanthropy Project. Hypermind is somewhat difficult to navigate, so you might only be able to find the contest if you create an account and look around. 42 more paragraphs... Highlights | Index | Prediction Markets ** | **& | ** Forecasting Platforms** | In the News | Hard to Categorize | Long Content
Crossposted from Lewis Bollard's Farm Animal Welfare Newsletter. After a tough year, here’s some good news. In spite of COVID, advocates for farm animals and alternative proteins achieved a record year of wins. Here are just a few of them: Plant-based meat surges. Three of China’s largest fast food chains — KFC, Dico’s, and Starbucks — started selling plant-based meat, as China’s top state planning agency called for investment in the space. McDonald’s announced a long-awaited line of plant-based meats, the creatively named McPlant. Food giants Nestle, Cargill, and Unilever unveiled ambitious plant-based meat plans, including in China, and the largest meat companies in Brazil, Japan, and Thailand launched new meat alternatives. US plant-based meat retail sales grew by a record 30-50% year-on-year. 11 more paragraphs... The philanthropic opportunity to accelerate change
Crossposted from Lewis Bollard's Farm Animal Welfare Newsletter. President-elect Joe Biden’s win heralds major changes on many issues. But the stakes for farm animals and alternative proteins are less clear: inaction on both has long been bipartisan in Washington DC. So what can we realistically hope for from a new Congress and Biden Administration, and what can we do to make it more likely? Start in Congress. Positive new legislation is unlikely: the US Congress last legislated to protect farm animals in 1978 (just mammals, and only at slaughter), and has never legislated to aid alternative proteins. The new Senate is unlikely to break that trend. But negative legislation is also unlikely, as the Dairy Pride Act has languished in Congress and the King Amendment has hopefully died along with the political careers of its champions: Rep. Steve King (R-IA) and House Ag Chair Collin Peterson (D-MN), who both lost their seats this year. 10 more paragraphs... No new laws; maybe new money | The fight for the USDA | Seven priorities for the USDA | What we can do
Crossposted from Lewis Bollard's Farm Animal Welfare Newsletter. Could this year be the tipping point for farm animals in Europe? It’s already brought more legislative progress for Europe’s farm animals than the last decade combined: In January, the agricultural ministers of the two largest European nations, France and Germany, jointly pledged to ban the killing of day-old chicks by the end of next year. The French minister also pledged to ban the castration of piglets without pain relief, as Germany is already set to do. If implemented, the measures could spare 90 million day-old chicks from gassing, and 30 million piglets from castration, across the two nations every year. 14 more paragraphs... Causes for Progress in Europe | Where to Focus
Crossposted from Lewis Bollard's Farm Animal Welfare Newsletter. Plant-based meat’s resilience has been a rare silver lining during COVID-19. Worldwide, the conventional meat industry continues to lobby for government bailouts, fail to protect its workers, and carry out grisly on-farm “depopulations.” But plant-based meat is thriving: As a result, plant-based meat is becoming ever-more widespread and convenient. But it’s still not competing with traditional meat on one key attribute: price. The average price for meat alternatives sold in US grocers’ meat departments last year was $9.87/lb, twice the average price of beef ($4.82/lb), and fourfold the average price of chicken ($2.33/lb). Frozen meat alternatives are a bit cheaper, most recently averaging $6.60/lb, but that only puts them on par with veal ($6.67lb). 18 more paragraphs... The price problem | The wisdom of the old | Cheap inputs, cheap outputs | Scale and simplicity
Crossposted from Lewis Bollard's Farm Animal Welfare Newsletter. The US meat supply chain is in disarray. At least 205 US slaughterhouses have had COVID-19 outbreaks, infecting at least 18,500 workers — about one in five of the industry’s workers. Over 7,000 workers at Tyson Foods alone have been infected, including over 1,000 at just one Iowa slaughterhouse. Meat is in short supply, with Walmart, Kroger, and Costco all limiting meat purchases. This has attracted huge media attention — the most slaughterhouses have gotten in a decade. In the last week, both USA Today and the Washington Post have printed long-form articles on the plight of slaughterhouse workers and the negligence of their employers. Even the industry’s euphemistically titled “depopulations” are now attracting mass media attention, including from ABC, CBS, Fox, CNN, and CNBC. 8 more paragraphs...
Crossposted from Lewis Bollard's Farm Animal Welfare Newsletter. I hope you and your loved ones are safe in this difficult time. As the world, including many of our colleagues at Open Philanthropy, focuses on the tragic human implications of COVID-19, here are some initial thoughts on how it may affect farm animals. COVID-19’s biggest impact on animals may be how it affects demand for their meat. In the US, panic buying drove fresh meat retail sales up 50-100% in late March. Even with restaurants buying less, Tyson Foods reported “unprecedented” demand, while poultry giant Sanderson Farms added extra shifts at its slaughterhouses. JP Morgan upgraded its recommendation for both companies to overweight, noting that demand may endure because meat is perishable. US wholesale egg prices hit an all-time high, at triple their level in early March. 16 more paragraphs... Impact on US meat consumption | Impact on global meat consumption | Impact on policy | Impact on advocacy
Crossposted from Lewis Bollard's Farm Animal Welfare Newsletter. The Game Changers has celebrities talking about plant-based diets. Backed by a star-studded list, including Arnold Schwarzenegger and Jackie Chan, the film’s premiere attracted NBA stars, Dr. Oz, and Serena Williams. The captain of the Indian cricket team even promoted the documentary to his 34M Twitter followers. Google search data suggests the film drove a global uptick in searches for plant-based diets (see chart below). The Game Changers is just the latest documentary to raise the profile of factory farming and plant-based diets. Eating Animals (2018) drew glowing reviews, won awards, and attracted national media attention. The more factually-challenged What the Health (2017) inspired Formula One legend Lewis Hamilton, NBA star Kyrie Irving, and fashion designer Tom Ford to go vegan, and likely also boosted Google searches. 18 more paragraphs...
Crossposted from Lewis Bollard's Farm Animal Welfare Newsletter. Investment banks and consultancies are making bold predictions for meat alternatives’ success: by 2030, UBS thinks meat alternatives will be a $85B global market; Barclays thinks they’ll be worth $140B; and AT Kearney thinks they’ll be worth $390B. Think tank RethinkX even predicts that, by 2030, meat alternatives’ success will have rendered the beef industry “all but bankrupt.” There is reason for optimism. The Beyond Burger is now sold in over 53,000 outlets, including a trial at 28 McDonald’s restaurants in Canada. The Impossible Burger just launched in retail, and outsold all ground beef in its first two weeks on the shelf in Southern California. And meat giants Tyson, Smithfield, JBS, and Hormel are all launching their own plant-based meats. These new alternatives come closer than any before to mimicking meat’s taste and texture. 10 more paragraphs... Subsidies or efficiencies? | So what?
[Table] I am Colonel (Ret.) Peter Mansoor, former executive officer to Gen. David Petraeus in Iraq and currently a professor of military history at The Ohio State University. AMA! (pt 2/2 FINAL)
Being of Palestinian descent, do you have any hopes for how a Biden administration may handle the ongoing conflict of Palestine-Israel? Are you okay with the current handling of it, is there anything specifically that you think could be done better on our end, etc?
This is a terrible situation for the Palestinians, but they need to realize they lost the wars in 1948 and subsequently. Time for the Palestinian leadership to cut the best deal they can and make peace with Israel. Sadly, I do not see this happening. There isn't much the United States can do to affect this situation - we tried supporting the Palestinian authority, and we tried cutting off aid. The result was the same.
Good morning Mr. Mansoor, If policies like a free public option for health care, free public college, and increased investment in high paying jobs rebuilding our infrastructure become a reality after this election and in the next four years, how do you see the DoD competing in that sort of job market? Healthcare and college are two powerful incentives for recruitment and number are already on a downward trend.
I doubt that Congress will approve free public college education, except perhaps for two years of community college. The GI Bill will remain a big draw. The military will also remain attractive to non-college educated high school graduates, regardless of what happens with college funding. College is not for everyone.
A Biden administration will also allow more immigration. Most people don't know that one does not have to be an American citizen to join the military. Allowing immigrants to join and then granting them citizenship after their commitment is done is a big incentive to enlist.
The bigger issue for the military is that most 18 year olds are not qualified to join the military - academically (high school grad), physically, or ethically (crime history). This is a societal issue over which the military has little control.
What strategies would you suggest Penn State employee to beat Ohio State this weekend?
Go back two years in time and make sure that Justin Fields sticks to his commitment to Penn State (he committed in 2018 before de-committing and going to Georgia).
What was the biggest mistake of the German Army in WWII? Invasion of Russia or Failure to secure oil fields in Middle East?
Those decisions belonged to Hitler, not to the German Army. His biggest mistake was declaring war against the United States, something he was not required to do by the Axis treaty. That move ensured the largest industrial power in the world was brought into the war in Europe, an outcome that was not certain after Pearl Harbor.
the below is a reply to the above
Always understood Hitler diverted the German army from their real objective the Romanian Oil Fields toward Stalingrad because of the city's name.
Germany had already lost the war by then. And you mean the oil fields in the Caucasus, as Romania was already a German ally.
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I agree that the Iraq War was misguided, and I argued as much when the war started (I was a colonel attending the US Army War College, so I had no say in the matter). On the other hand, our support of the Syrian Defense Forces and the Iraqi Army in battling ISIS was an effort worth the cost in blood and treasure, as the destruction of that terrorist group made both the United States and our European and Middle Eastern allies safer.
the below is a reply to the above
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You asked about proxy wars. Our support of the Syrian Democratic Forces is a proxy war - that group allied with the United States to destroy ISIS. The United States supported the Mujaheddin during the Soviet-Afghan War, not the Taliban. The Taliban came into being several years later during the Afghan civil war; the United States never supported that group. I'm not sure what you mean by "how you can support the war effort" since your original comment concerned the Iraq War, which I opposed.
What is your opinion of the military history books and criticism of Victor David Hanson? Do you use them at Ohio State?
I use Victor Davis Hanson's "Carnage and Culture," but in tandem with John Lynn's "Battle" so students can see both sides of the argument.
Some insurgency experts have claimed that the increasing reliance on mechanized and advanced military assets such as UAVs, tanks, etc. don’t actually aid coalition forces as much as hurt them, due to decreasing cooperation with locals and driving them to aid or even join insurgent groups. FM 3-24 even shows with a list of paradoxes specific to COIN operations that we are aware of some of these issues, but even with those in mind, the US military still has lots of problems combatting insurgent groups. Do you agree that these problems are partially due to the increased reliance on advanced technology by the US military? If so, should we consider shifting back our usage of military technology when combatting insurgencies, and if we should, how do you think we should convince the American people of this, when the technology we employ has prevented, at least in the short term, American casualties?
One of the things Gen. Petraeus emphasized during the Surge in Iraq in 2007-2008 was to get out of vehicles and patrol on foot. But the vehicles, such as MRAPs, were still extremely useful and I would not get rid of them and transition to a light infantry force, even in a counterinsurgency war. UAVs were also highly useful, especially when armed. The bottom line is advanced technology helped us fight the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Our troops needed to patrol on foot, but supplemented by technology and not divorced from it.
A good study is the Battle of Phase Line Gold in Sadr City in April 2008. Technology helped us win that very difficult fight.
How did you become a military historian?
I was interested in military history ever since I was in grade school. My mother would take me to the library once a week and I would gravitate to the military history section. I attended West Point and was going to focus my studies in civil engineering, but I kept getting drawn into history courses. So I ended up taking most of my electives in history but still took the honors course in civil engineering. After my company command in the late-'80s I applied to go to grad school and return to West Point to teach - in military history. My PhD from Ohio State and subsequent publications (including the award winning "The GI Offensive in Europe") made a career in academia possible. But I still wasn't planning on becoming an academic, until Ohio State reached out in 2007 and offered me a chair in military history. I then retired to become a professor. So it wasn't a path I set out to follow, but I kept getting pulled in that direction.
Your last name Mansoor is shared with many Muslims around the world. Any affiliation or Muslims in your family?
My family on my father's side is originally from Rumallah on the West Bank, but we are Christian Palestinians.
Do you have a favorite president? If so, who and why? Also, what do you think future looks like in terms of international conflict? The days of all our wars almost seem archaic - it seems to be all about soft power plays and influence operations
I would rank three presidents at the top of the list: Washington, without whom we would not have a country and who set the precedent for voluntarily giving up power after two terms in office - thus establishing the norm of peaceful transfer of power; Lincoln, who held the union together during the Civil War and freed the slaves; and Roosevelt, who fought both economic depression and global war and came out on top of both.
respect to you for your service. I must ask, how do you feel now about Iraq and the war we waged with the country??
Answered elsewhere - the war was a strategic mistake, perhaps the worst in the history of our country.
there is a common theme among high ranked ex military that support Biden, and have grave concern for the direction #45 is taking our country. I agree with you as well as Ret. Adm Mccraven said recently about #45 and his support for Biden for president. Shit, I agree with anyone thats against #45. What are your thoughts about Gen Mattis not wanting to comment more about #45? I feel he is missing a great opportunity to speak up more as Gen Kelly has recently. I dont think the time is now to remain silent. also just saw a news clip saying that if #45 is reelected, he will immediately fire FBI Director and Sec of Def Yesper....I mean... Esper. what are your thoughts about that?
See my comments above about the involvement of former general officers in presidential politics - they need to abstain as much as possible. We do not desire a politicized officers corps, and too much involvement by retired general officers will lead the military into the political thicket. Best that they comment on specific policies rather than their support for candidates.
As a young (Never Trump) Republican, is there any reason to be optimistic about the future of the party?
I would like to say yes, but I'm not optimistic. After this election the Republican Party can go one of three ways:
* Remain the party of Trump, led by Donald Trump, one of his family members, or someone like Tucker Carlson
* Treat Trumpism as an aberration and try to expand the Republican voting base under a new leader such as Nicky Halley
* Flip ideological positions with the Democratic Party and become the party of the blue collar working class
We'll see how the election goes. If Trump wins, the party becomes his personal fiefdom; if he loses small, it could stagger on in something like its current form; if he loses big, stand by for changes.
AusTurner: Let’s hope for some combination of 2 and 3. 😅 NEED_TP_ASAP: I've been saying for years, if the Republican party ever decided to become pro-worker, and more specifically pro-union, they would hardly ever lose an election. You can not possibly believe how well the Republican message resonates with blue collar workers, and union members. Low taxes, pro-2a, and America first is what really drives the bus for red voters outside the Bible Belt. Add protections and/or endorsement of unions and workers? That's a hard ticket to beat outside of traditional liberal/progressive strongholds. zarzak: The niggling point there is that blue collar workers are mostly minorities, and the Republican party messaging is decidedly anti-minority and has been since Goldwater. Such a flip would also require embracing minorities and diversity, and all of the attendant policy changes that requires. Given that a large part of the current party base is due to racism (the Southern Strategy was very successful) I don't see such a change happening anytime soon. Part of the recent report by the V-Dem Institute that the Republican party resembles authoritarian parties in Hungary and Turkey is based on the Republican party's violation of minority rights in recent years, so its a pertinent roadblock for Republicans to make any meaningful switch. Even if such a switch did happen, given the prevalence of pro-2a democrats in states where that matters you'd then have to ask what sort of ideological positions the Republican party would differentiate itself on. Given that the globalization genie has already left the bottle, so to speak, realistically speaking any promises on that front would simply be pandering to the base. So policy positions would have to be: * Religion (i.e. abortion) (I've read some strategy article stating that Republican leadership can't actually make this illegal as they'd lose a major voting block. I don't know if I buy that, but strategically the argument makes sense) * Taxes (though only tax cuts for the wealthy, as no one else has much of a tax burden currently - The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 is an excellent data point for this) * Cutting social programs (this is what small government equates to, as we know that the military would not be cut, and low taxes would necessitate smaller government even if it wasn't a Republican policy position). Interestingly this conflicts with US farm subsidies, one of the major socialist programs in this country ... though its an ideological distinction that hasn't mattered to Republican voters in the past, so why would it matter to them in the future. Also, interestingly, Republicans have historically (for the past few decades) not cared at all about a balanced budget while they have been in power, so perhaps this point is somewhat moot as it assumes a desire to enforce policy positions when in a position to do so. * Coal/Oil energy protection (given the rapid acceleration of climate change for the sake of the species this will hopefully be a completely nonviable policy position ... given the astounding resiliency of climate denial amongst the current Republican base I do not have high hopes on this, however) * Winning - Given all of the recent hypocrisy in the party (and outright criminality) in service of this goal, and support amongst the current base for the idea, this becomes perhaps the central differentiating factor - 'vote for the team that will 'win''. While of course not a true policy, it could certainly be a differentiator. I personally don't see why this would be popular to anyone who isn't a single issue voter or wealthy, but perhaps I'm mistaken? I'd argue that current Republican voters are for the most part low-information voters (in fact I'd argue that a distressingly high percentage of voters across the political spectrum are low-information voters, though weight more heavily on the Republican side), so perhaps such an analysis is really meaningless and only political pandering truly matters... which is certainly a depressing though. Also, while this post may come off as confrontational its not meant to be. The Republican Party in its current form is a reactionary authoritarian 'anti-party', where its defining characteristics are its desire to 'win' at any cost in order to stay in power coupled with its resistance to anything the Democratic party proposes (McConnell's filibustering of his own bill is a salient data point). While part of this is due to Trump, these tendencies have existed long before he did, such that the Republican party has no 'future-looking' policies, and instead only looks towards the past - specifically the gilded age, and an all-white, straight, Christian, male-dominated gilded age at that. Given this, to change the party requires, in my mind, much more than simply changing a single ideological position of 'anti-union' to 'pro-union' (which would never happen given the current corporate backing of the party), but a fundamental overhaul and complete recreation focused on some new ideological axis, or simply fully coalescing around being the 'racist, religious, anti-science' party and letting a new conservative party form without the shackles that the current Republican party would impose on it. There is certainly room in American politics for a party that takes its cues 100% from current economic research (no more discredited trickle-down nonsense) and bases policy decisions around that axis, for example. SalmonThudWater: I am no means disagreeing with you, you undoubtedly have more knowledge in this area and I'm not American. But in your first point; is it not the case that minorities are primarily blue collar, rather than blue collar being primarily minorities? I was under the impression that the vast majority would still be white (can't think of a more appropriate term)? zarzak: I was wondering that myself when replying as I had that idea in my head but no evidence. I did a little research and found that yes, a slight majority of low-income workers are minority. The definitions of 'blue collar' don't always exactly align with 'low-income' of course, but it was the best I could find on that data-point. Even if you slice the data differently and do find a non-minority majority of blue collar workers by a different definition, it would still be the case that minority workers are an extremely sizeable minority, likely close to 50-50. That ratio is only going to swing further in favor of "minorities" as their percent of the population is growing more quickly than the white-percentage (such that using the term "minority" won't really be demographically appropriate in the coming years).
I would agree that a flip-flop of the parties' agendas is unlikely at present, but it is not impossible. Remember that the Republican Party in the 19th century was a party of minority rights and nearly all blacks were Republicans. That changed in the 1930s and we see what has resulted today.
Military history question here: Some of history's most successful military leaders had zero military experience before they became leaders. Oliver Cromwell from the 1600s in England and Leon Trotsky in the Russian Civil War (1918-1921) spring to mind. Is military experience overrated, and with the technological nature of warfare today, could we ever see a successful army run by someone with no prior military experience?
You know the outliers because they are unique; there are legions of amateurs who failed, badly. Military education, training, and experience are all important to officers - especially education. I think it was Frederick the Great who stated that if experience alone was the determining factor of who should lead the army, then his horse would make a fine commander.
Colonel, I've read all of your responses to this AMA and I've walked away extremely impressed. You're an inspiration to me as a veteran and an American. Please continue to speak out, and a sincere thank you for your service. All top-level comments are required to contain a question, so who is OSU's real conference football rival and why is it Michigan State?
You mean Michagan, or, as we say in Ohio, _ichigan. Woody Hayes established the rule that you never say *ichigan; he called the Wolverines "That Team Up North." Although the rivalry has been pretty lopsided for a couple of decades, it is the fiercest in sports.
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Answered elsewhere - it was a huge mistake, a conclusion I came to during my time in the US Army War College in 2002-2003 before the war even began.
If you could go back in time and choose a different career path, what would you do?
I would do it all over again - I'm proud of my 26 year career in the US Army, and am grateful for the opportunity to educate the youth of America as a professor at Ohio State.
Was the invasion of Iraq a mistake?
Yes - answered elsewhere in this AMA.
I hear Petraeus' command was off the rails, unprofessional, and undignified. I hope I heard wrong. Your thoughts?
You heard wrong. General Petraeus was one of the most gifted commanders of his generation. For a look into his command, see my book "Surge: My Journey with General David Petraeus and the Remaking of the Iraq War."
On a significantly less serious note: do people from Ohio St not realize that everyone thinks they're obnoxious as hell when they say "THE Ohio State University" or do they just not care?
Well, The Ohio State University is the official name of the school. Look it up. And besides, it is a great marketing ploy - if I told you that I am a professor at THE, would you know how to fill in the rest? Case closed.
Why do you call yourself a republican since you clearly aren’t?
Well, I am not a Trump Republican. Go back to the debates that Ronald Reagan participated in - he was open to immigration, supported free trade, both cut taxes and raised them (the Social Security Deal with Tip O'Niel, for instance), and strengthened the military. Trump only believes in himself - I refuse to join a cult.
How do you sleep knowing that you actively participated in the murder of countless civilians, including children and infants?
Hardly countless. As a brigade commander I had officers investigate every civilian death in which our soldiers were involved. There were only a couple dozen, and we made restitution (solatia payments) to the families involved. Most were the result of civilians getting caught up in crossfire between insurgents and soldiers. Fighting a war in a large city like Baghdad is difficult; the presence of civilians sometimes results in tragedy. But as a soldier you do the best you can to limit civilian casualties while accomplishing your mission.
Sec. Bob Gates reportedly commented that Joe Biden was on the wrong side of every productive policy or situation in the last 25 years. I imagine that Biden if elected will appoint the best NSA, SecDef, and SecState he can to assist him. Who are your favorites for these positions?
Lots of great talent from which to choose. Here are some predictions (provided Biden wins, of course):
Secretary of State: Susan Rice Secretary of Defense: Michele Flournoy (my personal favorite) NSA: Antony Blinken
Do you see Pakistan as a US ally or adversary going into the future?
As a republican are you actively racist yourself, or are you merely tolerant of racism?
Your question speaks volumes about your level of tolerance and respect for others. But to be clear, I believe Black Lives Matter, Women's rights are human rights, people should have the right to marry whomever they want, and immigrants make America great. I spoke out in 2016 when I saw the possibility of Donald Trump becoming the party nominee and have voted against my party in three elections in a row. For those reading this thread in the Democratic Party, can you imagine yourself voting a straight Republican ticket to protest a party leader whom you cannot ethically stomach?
Do you have an education degree?
I have a Bachelor of Science degree from West Point, a Master's degree from Ohio State (history), a Master's degree from the US Army War College (strategic studies), and a PhD from Ohio State (history).
at the end of the AMA
Time to wrap up - thanks to all for your questions. Make a plan and go vote!
What is strategy? A mental tapestry of changing intentions for harmonizing and focusing our efforts as a basis for realizing some aim or purpose in an unfolding and often unforeseen world of many bewildering events and many contending interests. -John Boyd-
Ever since the start of its concept, D&D was a tactical combat game inspired by war games. The THAC0 rule was a remnant of the massive tables war games usually enable. With every edition, the rules get easier to understand and is forever known as a role playing game. Yet, it will always have a large set of rules aimed towards combat and that means that a bit of tactical thinking is necessary to get through this game. Strategic thinking is an eternal struggle of learning, testing, failing, evaluating, and doing it all over again. Strategic thinkers love to sink their teeth into some crunchy complicated cognitive competition. This is why a lot of popular strategic games are so tough. You thought you finished the single campaign? Oh no, that was just a giant tutorial level. The real game starts when playing against thinking opponents. Some might stumble upon this post and think “Nah, I’m not here to become a strict army general. I just want to have fun instead of meticulously nit-picking features.” or “The DM keeps killing us and I told him to stop but it didn’t work! How can I become unbeatable?!” I need to tell you that these tips are not meant for that. They are meant for achieving goals with less waste of time, resources, and party member funerals. It doesn’t matter if you play for flavor only or with a fully decked out warrior-mage, there will be situations in a campaign where you will get in a tight spot and there are ways to get out of it. If you follow these principles, then combat will become more manageable.
Reflecting
People aren’t against you; they are for themselves. The most dangerous risk of all is the risk of spending your life not doing what you want on the bet you can buy yourself the freedom to do it later. He who conquers others is strong, he who conquers himself is mighty. -Laozi-
At early levels (1 to 4 or so) you have the least amount of features and options possible for your character. It doesn’t have a lot of HP, its equipment is (mostly) non-magical, and there aren’t any added features for cool tricks yet so there isn’t a lot of leeway to make mistakes other than rookie mistakes. This is why I want players to start each campaign at just level 1. Yes, weak, feeble, squishy level 1. Because if you die at level 1 in a fair fight, you did something wrong. Something essential for your character to do right. Perhaps you chose your Wizard to run out of melee range without disengaging. Maybe you chose for your Barbarian to stay in the back and chuck javelins. Whatever it is, the character is at the lowest level of complexity and so it’s easier to find the problem. Plus, the features that a character gets at level 1 or 2 will remain and be interacted with until level 20. It doesn’t matter how strong a character is at that level if you don’t know how to handle it at level 1. However, the problem is usually a choice that the player has made rather than the (in)capabilities of the character. Like baking a cake, it doesn’t matter how well you mix the ingredients, it’s all ruined if you open the oven too soon. So whenever your character got at 0HP or lower, it doesn’t matter if it got back up again, you need to think about what went wrong and why. Saying ‘Yeah, my character died’ is not what went wrong, it’s the result of what went wrong. Remember what you chose to do that allowed something disastrous to happen to the character. That way, you will learn how to do things differently and not create a new character to shove in front of a meat grinder again.
Speeding Up Combat
God does not play dice. -Albert Einstein-
Some sessions might be exciting, others might be boring, and some might be absolutely ruined. This is game time quality. When you had a bad or uneventful session, you’ve paid time for a poor game experience and you’re not getting that time back. This is game time quantity. For people who realize how precious and hard to manage time is, this is dreadful. So even though fun is relative, spending more time on arbitrary things means less time enjoying it however you can. These little things can accumulate and create ‘dead time’. Combat is known for having these little time-wasters. Here are some tips to speed things up and leave you with more time quantity in the hopes of turning it into more time quality.
Sheet Reading
Every edition comes with a new character sheet design created by a graphic designer. Graphic design may seem like a simple matter of placing shapes and letters, but they deserve more respect than that. They look at the details, the way the eye darts around, the things that pop out, the things that are supposed to be compounded together, and the placement to find things where you left it. One of my players wrote his weapon-traits on the white space above the header so he had less trouble finding it quickly. Guess what, he still had trouble finding it when his turn started. Because he didn’t add any relevancy to the numbers and features, he just saw the sheet as an assortment of shapes and letters. Searching for something that was just where you left it (if you even leave it) is one of many time-wasters. Be sure to fill in any relevant details at the appropriate place on your character sheet. Keep it brief if you have to. So instead of:
[Longbow: two handed, heavy, range 150 short range/600 long range, 1d20 + Dexterity modifier + proficiency bonus, on hit: 1d8 + Dexterity modifier piercing damage]
Just abbreviate it to:
[L.bow +5, 150/600, 1d8 + 3 p]
or even
[Bow ProDex, 150/600, 1d8 + Dex p]
Cut out the bloat and let your brain fill in the obvious parts. You need two hands to wield a bow, and they’re heavy for the sake of being used by Medium creatures, so you can leave that out. A lot of attacks give a damage type and ‘piercing damage’ can just become ‘p’. If you don’t want to get confused between damage types then you can try ‘pie’ and ‘poi’ to differentiate between piercing and poison respectively. Your brain can fill in the blanks once it has a grip on the familiarity of the game. Look at your sheet without focusing on the details and what is written on them. Look for the following:
The headefooter of each part.
The ‘blocks’ or ‘zones’ of your sheet.
The reading order of features from most- to least relevant to come up often.
Anything in alphabetical order.
Rolling Dice
Leave any irrelevant dice in your dice bag so you can have room for the rest and don’t need to search on the table/dice tray which one you need. (I know you’ve confused the d20 with the d12 before, you know what I’m talking about!) You will always need 1 or 2 d20s, a size of your Hit Die, and at least one damage die depending on what kind of attack methods you have. If you have more types of dice, just leave the ones you don’t use from the table. When you roll for an attack, roll both your attack dice and damage dice at the same time when attacking. Check the attack dice first and if it’s a hit, check the damage dice you already cast. Even if you don’t hit, you didn’t take the time to check and scramble for the dice afterward. If you use a tabletop program, I’m sure that there is a feature that rolls all relevant dice in one go.
Memorize Scores
To make things even quicker, try to memorize your ability scores. Start with your most-used score as that will be applied many times. Scores and bonuses don’t change that often, so if it’s a +5 the last three times you added that up, you might as well remember that it’ll be a +5 until that score changes. Ability scores have never changed over time. It always changes with the even numbers, a 10 gives a +0 modifier, and it can work in the negatives. The modifier is simply [(Ability Score – 10) : 2 rounded down] anything below 10 will be [(Ability Score + 10) : 2 rounded down]. Details aside, in order to read relevant ability scores and modifiers quickly, know that you can ignore the 10, divide the remaining number in half, and round it down. If it’s 20, the modifier is 5, done. Seeing that quick math can sometimes speed it up rather than searching, checking, double-checking, and then realizing you rolled a saving throw instead.
Think Before Your Turn
The moment your turn starts is not the moment to start thinking about your move. It’s the moment to make the move. D&D may be tactical with miniatures on a field but it’s not like chess where you are given the time to think long and hard about your next move. As the initiative order goes around, pay attention to what others are doing. Can you impede the opponent in some way or does a party member need support? An attack can be your default move if you don’t know, but such a choice can be made before the turn starts.
Ending The Turn
When you end your turn, just say “I end my turn” so that nobody is in that awkward position of asking if you end your turn, or interrupt, or waiting for a bonus action or something. Expecting people to notice because you’re out of options doesn’t mean they have to keep up with whatever you are thinking. Be quick, clear, and just say it.
Strategy vs Tactics
Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy are the noise before defeat. -Sun Tzu, The Art of War-
Strategy games and tactical games are often confused with each other. Strategy is about focusing minds, energy, and action by creating a plan or approach in order to reach an outcome. It’s the plan, the concept, or the approach. Tactics, on the other hand, are a part of strategy but are more about immediate actions and choices with the situation and options at hand. The captain decides the approach but the troops have to make the split decisions. In order to understand more, we need to recognize the two. Below is a table that compares both parts.
Strategy
Tactics
Broadly defined
Specific activities
Large scale
Small scale
High concept
Low concept
Directions
Deviations
Future plan
Immediate choices
Approach
Details
Preparation
Decisions
Equation
Math
Itinerary
Navigation
Strategy without tactics becomes rigid and predictable. Tactics without strategy can succumb to the pressure of undirected choices and burn out because of poor preparation. Both need to go hand-in-hand to work, and when done properly, it works well and makes combat smoother. Chances are that you mainly think in one way over the other, if you can recognize that, challenge yourself in adding the opposite to improve your strategic skills.
Everything Is Strategy
If you don’t have a strategy, you are part of someone else’s strategy.” -Alvin Toffler-
Imagine that you want to get out of the very room you are in right now for whatever reason. Which of the following methods would you choose to do so? A. Use the door handle on a door to hinge it open and create an opening to walk through. B. Bash your head against the wall until the wall gives in and lets you out. C. Complain loudly that there is no possible way to ever get out of this room. Option A seems to be the most obvious answer, right? Yet, a lot of people use methods like B and C both in games and in their lives and can’t seem to realize that they’re not getting the results that they want. (Or they do get it and feel helpless when it suddenly doesn’t work anymore.) We associate strategy with war, combat, and turn-based games, but what if I told you that everything is strategy? The way you plan your day, the way you talk to people, the way you treat yourself, the things you eat, and even the way you sit in your seat. It’s not about winning or losing, it’s about results. And if you keep doing what you’ve always done, you will get the results you’ve always gotten. When you don’t use a strategy, life will make the results for you whether you like it or not. Even the argument of ‘the best strategy is no strategy’ is still a strategy, it’s just heavily reliant on tactics. So the question that matters is ‘is it a good strategy?’ Is leaving your days unscheduled making your days more stressful than they need to be? Is complaining to the DM about almost dying really his responsibility if you could’ve prevented it? Will that posture give you massive back pain sooner or later? You have the moment to think about it now, to think it through, and to take the power of choice in your own hands. With whatever you are doing to achieve something, ask yourself: What did I do to achieve this? Did it give me the result that I wanted? And did I get that result because of what I did? Rushing in with a battle cry fighting a gang head-on is a legit strategy if you have a party that can work with that. Because such a plan won’t work with a covert party of cutthroats and tricksters. Talking things out to prevent unnecessary bloodshed is a good strategy as long as the opposing side can understand you. Trying to stay together and sneak past a slumbering beast is a good plan, as long as the entire party keeps to that plan. So next time you’ve tried to continually use force to get your way and complain that it takes too long or is impossible, look at what you’re doing first and see if you can change your methods.
Resources vs Methods
It’s not the size that matters, it’s how you use it. -Proverb-
We like the feeling of using overwhelming numbers to achieve a goal. For example, a large line of archers often shoots in an arc because accuracy doesn’t matter with those numbers as they need to hit something. But relying on numbers alone can be wasteful when that fails. People with strategic skills know how to do much with very little resources. And they do this by prioritizing and figuring out how to utilize that resource. You don’t need large numbers if you know how to use it. You need only one rope to reach the moon as long as that rope is long enough. You can technically move the world if you have a large enough pivot and a good fulcrum. There is a trade-off in what you want to do when it comes to numbers and methods. Each action you take is something you spend, but that doesn’t mean that you have to spend it on damage. There are ‘pivot effects’ in the game that allow you to increase the effectiveness of any attack or defense. Things like grappling, tripping, lying prone, or shoving may seem like a step back because they don’t deal damage, but they can give two steps forward for the remainder of the battle. Or perhaps you really like to repeat that one move to no end. So with every move, you get the chance to think about the following:
Do you recognize what can be done to achieve a goal?
What do you gain by taking that action?
How can you gain much by losing very little?
Does your approach require action in quantities or of quality?
What action can increase the chances of success for the next five following actions?
Can you create a zero-sum situation? (You gain something and the opposition loses something at the same time.)
Is the action beneficial to someone else in the party?
As a rule of thumb, everything relevant that is measurable is a resource. Air can be measured in liters/gallons but only becomes relevant when it gets thinner or when you are underwater. Food can be measured in weight, volume, and nutritional values. And even color coding is a type of measurement. Having lots of toys does not matter if you won’t play with them. A massive list of friends on Facebook doesn’t matter if they’re not really friends you can talk to. Having a lot of space in your apartment can be measured in square feet but either if left empty or if filled with stuff it can both be wasted space depending on how relevant the stuff is. Unused resources are not necessarily a waste, but mistreated resources certainly are.
Pressure
Nobody benefited from a long war. -Sun Tzu, The Art of War-
Conflict shows two opposing sides of pressure. Pressure in this case is about which side is pushing the other back into a favorable position. During a fight, there is a lot of back-and-forth between combatants, but in the wider scope, there is an assaulting force and a defending force. One side tries to end the battle and the other tries to prevent it from ending. When the defending force can recover from the assault, they can change the tide and turn into the assaulting force. The trick in pressuring the opposition is about taking away any chance of recovery. This doesn’t mean that brow-beating the opposition with damage is the same as pressuring them. Some opposition works fine under such circumstances. It’s the weak spots you want to look for so when you hit it, the defending force will have to scramble to keep defending. You need to keep your wits about you as well. Some surprises can break the assault, leaving you with little time to recover as you are suddenly on the defending side.
Melee vs Ranged
Don’t bring a knife to a gunfight. -American Saying-
Imagine someone holding a sword and is threatening you with it, but he’s 200 feet away from you. He won’t be able to do much from that distance, now will he? He might run towards you, so all you need to do is keep that distance between you and him. So now imagine the opposite; a person is holding a gun right in your face. A gun is dangerous as a single trigger pull means certain death at the very thing it is aiming at. The problem is that it’s within swatting range. Any hit against the marksman’s arm can direct the projectile at a dramatically different angle. What can we learn from this? Simply this: use melee weapons in melee, use ranged weapons at range. Choose your primary combat approach: either melee or ranged, and take the other approach as a secondary method. You don’t need to be a stellar combatant in both ways, but the moment you take the risk of shooting a bow while engaged in melee, you’ve made a poor choice that might tip the scales of the battle against you. So be ready to have at least something with you in order to still be in the fight. When you have your primary approach, you need to pressure your opponent into your specialty. Imagine two melee-combatants on equal footing fighting each other. The strongest melee combatant would win. Yet, when it’s melee vs ranged, the one with the most range will remain safe while peppering the melee combatant. But with the least amount of range, the melee combatant will be in its element and force the ranged combatant to use less-optimal methods. So when engaging an opponent, assume that they are using the approach that works best for them and take the initiative to remove that approach from them and force them to use yours. Archers on a wall, for example, are at a very strong ranged position. Yet, if you can get a melee combatant at that exact location, no archer will be able to ignore that for the sake of their own safety, removing ranged attacks that come from the wall. There are exceptions to this. Some creatures are tough opponents no matter which approach you use. That is when you just have to do what you do best and try to find ways to make the opponent’s methods less effective. As a rule of thumb, if the monster is on the cover of a D&D book, it’s not going to be easy to defeat. So if you have a party that is all-melee, know that the fight might end the moment you are out of reach. Get into melee range but keep yourself safe in the process. Charging against the line of assault is a massive risk. You need to get out of that line with the least amount of risk as possible, tiger crawling in a ditch if you have to. As the opposite counts for a party of only ranged combatants. The more range you have, the best off you will be, but if the situation is always one-shot-one-kill then it won’t last when the opponent outnumbers or survives the attacks. Get ready to either increase your distance or switch to melee and struggle to survive when that happens.
Positioning
The easiest thing to be in the world is you. The most difficult thing to be is what other people want you to be. Don’t let them put you in that position. -Leo Buscaglia-
There are basically two positions in tactical battles; the front line and the backline. The front is any position closest to the opponent, the back is the furthest from the opponent. This means that when walking in a straight line, either end of the line can become the front when a fight starts. When being surrounded by opponents, any outer circle of your party is the front and the inner circle is the back. Anyone in the front can expect to be attacked the most often. They will also be the quickest in melee range and will most likely engage in melee-vs-melee combat. The front is the first line of defense against anything assaulting the group, including the backline. So get melee-combatants with high defenses in the front as soon as possible. Those without high defenses will need to find a way to keep themselves mobile in order to get out of melee range. A front that is too far away from the back will often miss any support and might falter without recovery. Anyone in the back will least likely be attacked unless they seem like a threat to anyone who is smart enough to recognize it and reach the backline in time. Ranged combat is favorable in the back lines as the front lines are engaged in melee. So keep ranged characters with low defenses in the back, the distance they have on opponents allows them to react to the situation and still be active. A back that is too far away from the front is often vulnerable and will get occupied with immediate threats if they surprise them, putting pressure on the entire party. Any place between the front and the back is right for mid-range members, the ones who can quickly switch between melee and ranged or have a longer range than melee. It’s a versatile position to be in so you can start using your longest range first and switch to your shortest range when you are close enough. When something found a way to creep directly to the backline, sabotaging it and causing chaos, mid-range can run in and assist the backline in a pinch.
Surroundings
“How often are you aware of your surroundings, really aware? And how often were you merely reacting in the same automatic way as you do in dreams?” -Stephen LaBerge-
Too many scenarios are thought of in a vacuum. Too many areas are either bare or not interacted with. What if I told you that you can increase your AC and speed for free and with ease? All you have to do is be aware and interact with your environment. And if you don’t see it directly, you can find a way to create it. Here are some principles.
Bottleneck/Choke Point
A narrow passageway can slow down movement and create predictable positions. It prevents most enemies from surrounding you. Any creature that is as large or larger than the passageway is slowed down, allowing you to escape.
High Ground
Higher ground means that ranged characters can bypass most cover from a third dimension as long as it’s lower. Any creature climbing up the higher ground is exposed and slow. Anyone rushing from the high point can gain speed.
Back Against Wall
Having your back against the wall limits your mobility and decreases the distance between you and approaching enemies. However, it also means that there are no enemies behind you, meaning that you can focus on what is in front of you.
Cover
Cover is more common than it seems. Trees, rocks, windows, and tables can provide cover if utilized well enough. You can push over tables and look for fallen tree trunks to quickly find coverage. If the cover is too low, know that you can crouch or lie prone as well to benefit from it.
Ambush
If you see the enemy and they don’t see you, that’s an opportunity to gain the upper hand by ambushing them. However, instead of impulsively opening fire and stealing any chance from the rest to work with you, you could instead mention the position of the enemy quietly and plan an organized ambush. Not only that, you could try to place yourself in the right positions before opening fire. Visual examples here.
Advantages/Disadvantages
If fighting is sure to result in victory then you must fight. Sun Tzu said that. And I’d say he knows a little more about fighting than you do pal because he invented it! And then he perfected it so that no living man could best him in the ring of honor! -TF2 Meet the Soldier-
Napoleon had massive troops and still lost when fighting the Russians. How? Because he fought in Russia during winter. Russians are basically born in the cold and fully prepared for the elements in their home country. Every village the French troops came across was burned to the ground, leaving no resources to shelter or feed such a massive army, forcing them to rely on their rations which were not enough. The winter and poor food made the army sick. Little by little, Russian guerrilla tactics picked off this incredible number of men, taking away hundreds, and Napoleon eventually decided to turn back and suffer great losses with nothing to gain from it. Troy had well-defended walls and yet the city was taken by the Greeks. How? It’s the tale of the famous Trojan horse. A stratagem of subterfuge. The Greeks only used a skeleton crew of sailors to leave with the ships while the rest of the troops hid in this supposed gift. When they were inside the walls, they ran out and struck Troy at their most vulnerable point. The legendary ronin Miyamoto Musashi won against Sasaki Kojiro, a prideful samurai who valued his status, by arriving late and showing atrocious manners. This made his opponent so angry that he lost his focus, making it easy for Musashi to defeat him. What’s more, Kojiro had his sword made to be longer to give him a strategic edge, yet Musashi knew this and took his time to make a wooden sword out of an oar to outreach his opponent. They both technically had one sword, yet Musashi crafted a method that was so novel that nobody was prepared for it. What we can take from this is that there is no perfection, no ultimate plan, no guaranteed victory, and that a single unmatched element can be bypassed not by the same opposing element, but by something different. Every situation has advantages and disadvantages on your side, and the opposing side has those too. Those are called threats and opportunities. The most important part of these elements is recognizing and being aware of these elements. When that is known, the next step is to figure out how to utilize your advantages and keep them at that level, work around your disadvantages, and do the same against the opposition. Below are some examples of such elements to be aware of, but know that there could be more that are not listed.
Mobility
Does speed matter when the party is a bunch of earth-scorching spellcasters? You’ll tell me when a dinosaur can get in front of you in a single burst of speed. The one with higher mobility has more options in positioning themselves where they want to be. Whether it’s about getting close, keeping away, or bypassing obstacles quickly, the one with more mobility has the advantage of controlling distance.
Manpower
Being outnumbered is often more dangerous than dealing with a single tough opponent. When it’s three-to-one, all attacks are still focused on one HP pool while the opposition has to divide their actions against multiple opponents. Even with high armor you can get hit multiple times. Add crippling effects to the mix and the larger group can easily beat a smaller group. When the numbers against you are overwhelmingly high, I recommend fleeing.
Stamina
Pick your battles. A group that is low on resources has a lot of pressure to endure from an opponent that is better equipped. It’s possible to get into multiple fights a day, especially if you know how to use very little to great effect. But when the group is at the end of their ropes before a battle even starts, then it won’t end pretty.
Intel
Knowledge is power. When it comes to conflict, people are willing to find your weak spot and use it against you. It’s impossible to be clear of weaknesses, but your defenses need to be good enough to end the battle before the opponent learns about it and comes up with a way to exploit it. The opposite works the exact same way. Intel can be anything from resistances, vulnerabilities, behavior, preferences, general strategies, or even the location of your enemy. Knowing this allows you to anticipate your enemies' actions, allowing you to plan for one step ahead. If you know where you are headed and have a general idea of what you are facing and the time and resources to learn about it, then there is no excuse for trying to get the upper hand of something. With everything else you need to try and learn what the strengths and weaknesses of your opponent are and in what way your own strengths and weaknesses lie.
Visibility
Often taken for granted, visibility is more important than it seems. Poor visibility increases the risk of being jumped on, of missing a target, and of losing an opponent out of sight. Locations with poor visibility are a potential hazard as they threaten your awareness of the surroundings. But being hard to spot increases your effectiveness.
The Numbers Game
Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted, counts. -Albert Einstein-
There is something that bothers me when I see it on the web or in life. It’s the moments where players freak out when a single number is off, and I do mean freak out. Anything less than perfect ruins everything for them. Any statistic that is judged as less effective is permanently trashed. Anything that does not increase damage or armor is shunned and woe they who dare to suggest it. (Of course, it matters when it comes to science, but games aren’t science.) Then these players, either individually or in groups, have optimized and decked out their character with high numbers and steamroll any fight. The DM, feeling like the group isn’t challenged enough, looks for ways to get back in the game. The advice is often to increase the difficulty by increasing hit points, the number of enemies, or get an enemy of a higher level. In return, the players will only try harder to increase the numbers and spam that in great quantities, and The Numbers Game has begun. The DM will increase a number, and then the group increases a number, and then the DM increases a number and so on until the DM accidentally goes too far and crushes the group in a single blow or until fights feel like nothing but a rock-em-sock-em robot game that goes on for hours. When playing The Numbers Game, everybody loses. It’s the mentality that more and bigger is always better. It’s like the authorities who are demanding that you should work harder but never to work smarter. Like a plate with nothing but pasta and no sauce. Like someone who thinks yelling makes a foreign language more comprehensible. Like the person who says ‘you just don’t want it enough’ to someone who has trouble learning a skill. Like the manager who believes nine women can deliver a single baby in one month. Like increasing the heat of the stove in order to get a perfect meal done sooner. Like the harder you press the jump button the higher the character jumps. The louder the music, the more beautiful it’s supposed to be. It’s the guy bashing his head against the wall, complaining that the head is not hard enough. When it’s all about the numbers, the highest number wins, and the DM can always come up with higher numbers than the player can. Maximum damage is not going to keep the sacred urn safe. Unbeatable armor means nothing when submerged in water. That insane damaging combo is not going to prevent the princess from getting married to some royal snob. A point less in Constitution doesn’t mean that the character is crippled beyond salvation. A high HP pool won’t get you out of the permanently sealed tomb. The free resurrections aren’t of any help when the body is dissolved in a pool of acid. That min-maxed character will still be mind-controlled. You might think that those situations are unfair, but that’s the thing, it’s totally fair. The thing is that the DM isn’t playing The Numbers Game, and thus you can still fall for anything unexpected. To say that the numbers don’t matter is not true, they matter, just not so much that the difference in a single point can give a devastating result. If a sword gives more damage than a pike but the pike allows you to fight in second rows, then it’s more about what you try to gain rather than the numbers. If you can’t get a greatbow because you’re too small but have the ability to hide better, then utilize that rather than focus on what weapon it could’ve been. Relax, I know that full numbers are more satisfying and that higher numbers give you a higher chance of success in certain situations. But that’s the thing, it’s about chances, not guarantees. There are other ways to help the chances along.
Ability Assessments
Assume everyone performs at the best of their current ability. NLP presupposition
Look at your character class saving throw bonuses. You won’t see them in any of these combinations: Constitution, Dexterity, and Wisdom; or Strength, Intelligence, and Charisma. It’s always a combination of one of the former and one of the latter. Why is this? The former array is ability scores that are most often targeted by spells and effects. The latter is targeted less often. So even if you have a high Strength, there will be another score to back you up a bit when it comes to other defenses. This often starts the argument that spells that target Dexterity aren’t effective as the chances of them failing are high. This is a generalized statement that can be circumvented, let me show you how. Most western monster designs are ‘what you see is what you get’. This isn’t always true, there are surprises with some monsters, but there are ways to get a read on them if you pay attention. When your DM is describing a monster, pay attention to all the details. For example, your DM describes this big hulking creature with long muscular arms, short legs, and a hunched figure with a big brow. What did I describe? It doesn’t matter. What matters is that it has muscles, so it might have a high Strength. It has a large hulking figure, so it has a high Constitution. Stubby legs, so it’s probably not very fast or dexterous. It’s hunched and has a large brow so it seems to be low on Intelligence. Right off the bat you know that he will most likely succeed Strength and Constitution saves and fail Intelligence and Wisdom saves. This is not an exact science, it’s assessing the monster and seeing if you can aim for attacks that are at your advantage or adapt when you know they are at a disadvantage. You can recognize high/low ability scores by some of the following traits:
High Constitution
Low Constitution
Size Large or larger
Size Tiny
Single melee combatant
Usually fights in groups
Has healing/regenerating/damage resisting properties
No hit point properties
Large gut
Very scrawny
Unified/Consistent body
Flaky/Ephemeral body
Made out of sturdy materials
Made out of fragile materials
High Strength
Low Strength
Size Large or larger
Size Small or smaller
Clearly developed muscle mass
Poorly developed muscle mass
Wears heavy armonatural plates
Wears light armonone
Moves with bursts of speed despite large frame and legs
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